“The wind that blows over Palm Sunday will not change any time soon”. This famous saying refers to the Sunday before Easter and marks the start of Holy Week. This day finds its origin in the Bible, Palm Sunday celebrating the triumphal and victorious arrival of Jesus Christ in Jerusalem, welcomed by the crowd waving branches cut from the trees. The wind that blows on this day is supposed to dominate throughout the current year, and more particularly during the coming summer.
This popular belief has given rise to many variations of the proverb: “Wind that beats Palm Sunday beats nine months of the year”, or “The wind, for Palm Sunday, blesses. The whole year blows and follows” . Curiously, this adage very often turns out to be true. According to Patrick Marlière, meteorologist for Agate Météo, “this saying is true to nearly 70%”. “It’s true that at this time of the year, we pay attention to the weather to imagine what the rest of the year could look like,” he confides to Planet.
Last year, for example, the Palm Sunday wind correctly predicted the summer trend. “In 2022, we had east to northeast winds, synonymous with heat and drought. And the year was exceptional from all meteorological points of view,” says the expert. Before continuing: “In 2021, it was the same thing: at Easter time, we had winds from the south, southwest, and we had a rotten summer”.
This year, Palm Sunday took place on April 2. What conclusions can we draw for the summer of 2023?
“The Rameaux wind was oriented north this year. For the summer, it suggests rather dry weather north of the Loire, and more disturbed in the south. We expect thunderstorms and especially wind: if the saying is true, we would be less affected by the drought and the heat than last summer. The season could resemble the summer of 2020, with less frequent and shorter heat waves than in 2022”, explains Patrick Marlière.
“That doesn’t mean it’s good news!” He warns, however. Indeed, storms could be numerous and violent this summer. “In recent years, storms have been extremely violent. We saw it a few days ago with the tornadoes that occurred at the end of March. We can fear major hailstorms when temperatures rise,” predicts the specialist.
Do these forecasts related to Palm Sunday agree with the seasonal forecasts established by meteorologists?
For Planet, Patrick Marlière also unveiled the first weather trends for the coming summer. If the reliability remains low at this time, it would seem that the season is hot, with temperatures 1 to 2°C above normal for the season, but less hot than in 2022.
“We are expecting very heavy rainfall, but not necessarily relevant. When there is a thunderstorm, the rain falls in large quantities and runs off the ground, instead of infiltrating. We can also fear tornadoes and falls hail”, announces the forecaster.
See you at the end of the summer to check if the Palm Sunday wind had blown the right answers this year!
