Will Elisabeth Borne spend the summer locked up in Matignon? In politics, the month of July is often synonymous with reshuffle, because it is easier to form a new government team when the files are not pressing and the news is often less intense than the rest of the year. Three years ago, on July 3, 2020, Edouard Philippe submitted his resignation to Emmanuel Macron and was replaced as Prime Minister by Jean Castex, who ended the five-year term alongside the President of the Republic.
The reshuffle has been a stubborn rumor since January and the start of heated debates on pension reform. The current Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, is said to be weakened by some, already on the sidelines for others, while the 100 days entrusted by Emmanuel Macron have not yet passed. The count must officially end on July 14, a symbolic date that some observers see as the Prime Minister’s last moments at Matignon. The list of his possible replacements only grows a little longer each week, with some seeing Gérald Darmanin, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Gérard Larcher, Julien Denormandie or even Gérard Larcher take his place… Is the current Prime Minister really on the go ?
Questioned by Le Parisien, an adviser explains: “A huge thing would really have to happen that nothing moves before the summer”. According to another, “Borne and him [Emmanuel Macron, Editor’s note] both started discussing it a few days ago”. What is the most likely scenario for a change in the government team? Will Emmanuel Macron kick the anthill before the summer holidays? Will he leave Elisabeth Borne in place or will he choose another Prime Minister?
What if Elisabeth Borne stayed at Matignon? If a reshuffle is mentioned by all, nothing says that Emmanuel Macron will choose to change Prime Minister. As Le Parisien explains, “the Prime Minister would be in favor of staying at Matignon, despite furious headwinds since she took office a year ago”. The president would have no choice, according to one of his relatives, quoted by the daily: “Macron has trouble with it, they are so different. But it unfolds and, above all, he sees that alternative solutions like a Darmanin, a Ferrand or a Denormandie do not allow at this stage to respond to its main problem since the legislative elections: the lack of an absolute majority in the hemicycle “.
By maintaining Elisabeth Borne in her post, Emmanuel Macron is ensuring the loyalty and efficiency of his Prime Minister, who has already weathered one of the strongest storms of this start of the five-year term with the pension reform. It means staying on familiar ground and allowing him to continue his mission in the National Assembly, that of finding allies in government beyond the Renaissance group. On July 14, the president could therefore choose to part with elements that are not effective enough for his taste, while restating his confidence in Elisabeth Borne. However, changing Prime Minister could also have an advantage for the rest of the five-year term…
By separating from Elisabeth Borne, Emmanuel Macron will be able to breathe new life into his five-year term. The main objective would be to forget once and for all the episode of the pension reform, while the government will soon tackle the chapter on immigration law. You still have to pass the casting… And it won’t be an easy task. Should we bet once again on a technocratic Prime Minister or on the contrary take on a political personality? Should we look for someone from macronie or turn to the right?
Questions that do not yet have their answers, but decisions could be taken very quickly at the top of the state. If Emmanuel Macron continues to show his confidence in Elisabeth Borne, this does not mean that he is not thinking of changing his right arm. Indeed, three years ago, he was full of praise for Edouard Philippe, before thanking him at the start of the summer…
