(London) Oil prices hesitated on Friday, the two global benchmarks catching their breath after their rise of the week, between the return of investors’ appetite for risk and questions about demand.
Around 6:10 a.m., a barrel of Brent North Sea for September delivery lost some 0.02% to 81.34 dollars.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August delivery, fell just 0.01% to 76.88 dollars.
The two world crude benchmarks, however, were moving close to their highest levels in two and a half months reached the day before.
Crude prices “have been buoyed by the weaker US dollar as markets hope the Fed’s rate hike cycle will end soon,” said Exinity analyst Han Tan.
However, the depreciation of the American currency encourages purchases of oil, denominated in greenbacks, by making them more attractive for buyers using other currencies.
However, the analyst notes that prices remain held back by fears about the resilience of demand, which have not yet faded.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil demand will reach 102.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, a record despite a downward revision to the forecast due to the global economic downturn.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for its part maintained its demand growth forecast, revised very slightly upwards, for an overall demand of 102 mb/d.
So these are “very different forecasts for oil demand,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
“The gap between forecasts for 2024 is even bigger,” he said, noting that the IEA expects demand to grow by just 1.1 mb/d, while OPEC bets on a double increase, i.e. 2.2 mb/d.
OPEC and the IEA, however, have “both lowered their demand forecasts for the second half of 2023, but the revision is much more severe on the part of the IEA”, notes the analyst.
