Since the Covid-19 crisis and the rise in prices at the end of confinement, inflation has gradually taken hold. Supported by the closure of certain countries, such as China, and by the war in Ukraine, the general rise in prices has been at record rates. Inflation notably exceeded the 6% mark over one year in France in July 2022.
The peak of inflation for the euro zone would have been reached during the autumn and the decline should continue in 2023. However, France is an exception. “In France, we will experience a peak rather in February or March”, explains Sylvain Bersinger, economist at Asterès, to our colleagues from Capital.
This typically French peak is explained by the new calibration of the tariff shield with a 15% increase in gas and electricity prices in January and February. The end on January 1, 2023 of the rebate at the petrol pump of 10 centimes per liter would also explain the maintenance of high French inflation.
France should therefore experience inflation of 7% at the end of winter before returning to levels comparable to other countries in the euro zone.
The European Central Bank, optimistic, forecasts a drop in 2023 for a return of inflation to around 2% in 2024. “Except in the event of a new unexpected geopolitical shock, of course…”, comments Sylvain Bersinger, economist at Asterès. He’s not the only one to be cautious. According to INSEE, the household confidence indicator remains at historically low levels.
