The first round pick obtained from the Calgary Flames by the Canadian to allow him to offload Sean Monahan’s contract is seeing its value fluctuate these days. Not only because of the performance of the Flames, but also that of the Panthers.
The Flames were languishing in the cellar of the standings not long ago and a rebuild, at least an aggressive reset, was on the agenda, especially with two potential unrestricted free agents, center Elias Lindholm and defenseman Noah Hanifin.
A recent series of successes, only three regular defeats in their last ten games, allowed the Flames to move up the rankings and approach just one point from the last place giving access to the playoffs.
Clinging to the hope of making the playoffs with an average core is not the best way to ensure the sustainability of an organization, but the average general manager has often accustomed us in the past to a vision more narrow.
A “fire sale” would allow the Canadian to hope for a fall in the Flames’ standings, not only this year, but also next year. But it also requires the collaboration of the Florida Panthers and they do not seem very cooperative these days.
Let us try again to summarize the very complex clauses of this transaction. Initially, general manager Kent Hughes could agree to take advantage of this choice as early as 2024 if he is between 20th and 32nd. For now, the Flames are drafted 10th overall. To be excluded unless there is a spectacular rise.
With their 13-7-2 record and second place in the Atlantic Division, the Panthers appear to be heading toward a playoff berth, especially with the return of their two injured defensemen, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour.
At the rate things are going, the Panthers will give up their first round pick offered to the Flyers in 2024 for Claude Giroux since he would not be in the top 10.
The Calgary Flames will therefore get the Panthers’ 2025 first-round pick to complete the Matthew Tkachuk trade for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar.
If the Flames have a terrible season next year and their first-round pick is in the top 10 and the Panthers’ pick isn’t, Montreal will get Florida’s pick, regardless of rank. But if the first round picks of the Flames and the Panthers are excluded from the top 10, the CH will obtain the more favorable choice of the two.
In the current context, and taking into account the strength of the Panthers, whose plunge in the rankings next year seems unlikely, we must wish the Flames an average season next year, fighting for a place in the playoffs, without succeed, or with a defeat in the first round, to benefit from a choice between 11th and 20th place.
On the other hand, if the Panthers fall in the standings next year, to the point of missing the playoffs, they will keep their 2025 first round pick and give up their 2026 pick to Calgary.
And to roughly summarize, if Florida AND Calgary dip in the rankings in 2024-2025, then Montreal could hit the jackpot, with a pick in the top 10.
That’s a lot of goals, though, and a lot of hockey to play between now and then. To be continued.
Connor McDavid’s record under Jay Woodcroft: 10 points in 11 games.
Connor McDavid’s record under new coach Kris Knoblaugh, his former coach in the junior ranks: 18 points in 8 games, including 12 in the last 3 games, all won by the Oilers…
Edmonton is now five points behind the Nashville Predators and the final playoff spot.
