(Washington) Consumer confidence declined in the United States in November contrary to forecasts, weighed down by fears about inflation, according to the preliminary estimate from the University of Michigan published Friday.
This is the fourth time in a row that this monthly barometer has deteriorated, falling by 5% in November to 60.4 points, the lowest in six months.
Analysts expected it to remain at least stable at 63.7 points, according to a Briefing.com consensus.
Over one year, household morale still increased by 6.5%, compared to 56.7 points in November 2022.
There is “concern about the negative effects of high interest rates,” survey director Joanne Hsu said in a statement.
“The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are also weighing on the morale of many consumers”, particularly “the youngest and those with low incomes”, according to this press release.
In contrast, the survey notes a 10% improvement in confidence among the top third of respondents who own stocks. “This reflects the recent rebound in the stock market,” points out the University of Michigan economist.
Inflation expectations – a survey measure closely watched by markets – see price rises accelerating in a year, to 4.4%, the highest since November 2022, from 4.2%. estimated in October and especially 3.2% in September.
“The acceleration” of the perception of price developments “was therefore not an error in October,” concluded Joanne Hsu.
Inflation in the United States remained stable in September, at 3.4% year-on-year according to the PCE index or 3.7% according to the still slightly higher CPI index.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank was not sure it had done enough to continue to curb inflation. He left the door open for another rate increase if price rises don’t slow.
