Javier TahiriSEGUIRMADRID Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *
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Spain will suffer a recession that may be the biggest among the countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). So what predicts the agency in its new economic forecasts, which paint two scenarios according to whether or not there is a regrowth in the fall. If there is one, the GDP in Spain will fall 14.4% this year to grow 5% that is coming. This would mean that our country would suffer the biggest decline this year among the nearly 50 countries that analyzes the agency from all over the globe. A fact that explains the magnitude of the crisis: Spain has already been stopped 23.3% of the GDP since you started the crisis, the largest subsidence among the countries covered, up from 18.4 per cent that has been lost in the Eurozone.
The OECD warns that the debt is increasing to levels of “extremely high” in Spain and other countries. According to their estimates the passive public scale in 34 points, up to 129,5% of GDP in 2020 and the 128,8% in 2021, while the deficit stood at 12.5% this year and 9.6% the next. Unemployment, for its part, would scale to 20.1% in 2020 and 21.9% in the following year, by the loss of work on the part of the now affected by ERTE.
In such a scenario of resurgence of the virus in the autumn, Italy would take place a collapse of the 14% (and a subsequent recovery of 5.3%) and France, a drop of 14.1% (to what would follow a rebound of GDP to 5.2%). Germany would collect a downturn of 8.8% and then a recovery of 1.7% while the united States would suffer a recession of 8.4% and a growth of 1.9 the following year.
throughout the two years of the projection, only Iceland (with a cumulative fall in two years of 9.1% vs. 2019) and Ireland (-8,8%) have a worse performance than Spain (which at the end of 2021 will still have a GDP of 8.4 per cent below their pre-crisis ) if you encounter this pessimistic scenario. The estimates reflect the strike of the health crisis, and in that case, Korea would be the country that less would fall this year, with a 2.5% in 2020 and to 1.4% growth in 2021. China (with a 3.7% in 2020 and 4.5% in 2021) and India (-7,3% and 8.1%, respectively ) would be the states that would have better performance over the two years in this scenario back to the confinement in the autumn.
a Few figures that make pale the Government’s forecasts, which expected a fall of 9.2% this year and a rebound of 6.8% in 2021, with a public debt of 115,5% and a deficit of 10.3%, which is encuadraría on the assumption that there will not be regrowth. In this case, the OECD predicts that the fall of the Spanish GDP will be 11.1% this year to grow 7.5% the next. The unemployment would be down to 19.2% and 18.7 per cent this year and next while the impact on the public accounts would be consolidated into a public debt of 117,8% this year and 115,8% the following, in addition to a deficit of 10.3% (the same forecast that the Government) in 2020, and 6.2% in 2021.
“we’re in the greatest recession the global view since the founding of this agency for the past sixty years,” said the secretary-general of the OECD, Angel Gurría, in a press conference from Paris. Because the agency expects the world economy to contract a range between 7.6% –with a recovery of 2.8% in 2021– in the worst case scenario, and 6% –with a rebound of 5.2% in the next year. In the end, a fall monumental cuatriplica that suffered during the crisis of 2009.
The institution estimated that the impact of the confinement on the activity in Spain has been the highest , with a 36.5 per cent less production, compared to 34% in Italy, 32% in the United Kingdom and France, or 35% of Germany. This is explained by the most damage to the services that occurs in our country with a fall of 46% of its activity for every week of confinement, a figure that is the highest among the countries analyzed, as compared to France (41%), Italy (43%) or Germany (39%).
the greater the hardness of the confinement in Spain and the productive structure of our country, more dependent upon tourism and with companies, on average, smaller that a good part of the world powers, this blow to the services is amplified in the Spanish GDP.
Spain is in fact the fourth country with more jobs affected by the confinement , to impact more on sectors strong as the tourism or the automobile production, with 44.2% of the total workers, after Greece (45,5%, due to the importance of tourism and the naval industry), United Kingdom (44,7%, also with an automobile industry strong) and Canada (44.5 per cent).
In the unemployment , the agency points to Spain as the country where more increases for each point of the destruction of GDP, which explains the high rate that will reach our country. For each point of fall of the GDP, according to the law of Okun calculated by the agency on the basis of the data of the last 20 years, unemployment increased 0.8 points.