What is the value of a player who has not yet run a yard or even played a game in the NFL? In the case of Bijan Robinson, it is immense.
The season of pools and famous fantasy is coming at lightning speed. Almost as fast as yet another reprint of the Pierre Gervais book: in the heart of the locker room.
The most studious amateurs will undoubtedly have noticed the name of Bijan Robinson appearing very high on the various lists provided by the specialized sites.
So much so that it is legitimate to wonder how a running back just 21 years old, recently drafted and having never jumped on an NFL field before, can be placed in the same boat as some veterans who have already made their mark and proved themselves.
Like Robinson Crusoe, Bijan is alone on his island. No rookie, apart from a quarterback, arouses so much excitement and expectation.
On The Score’s list, Robinson would be the third running back in the NFL, for production, in the upcoming season. The site’s predictions put him ahead of Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley.
Same rank according to ESPN. According to the experts of the American network, the Atlanta Falcons player drafted eighth in the last draft will perform better than Barkley, Derrick Henry and Pollard.
Specialists from the Yahoo Sports site, meanwhile, place Robinson in fourth place, ahead of Pollard, Barkley and Henry.
Two questions arise.
The first: why are expectations of Robinson so high?
To answer it, just look at what level he was drafted. The former University of Texas Longhorns was picked eighth overall by the Falcons. The last time a running back heard his name mentioned in the top 10 was Saquon Barkley, selected second overall by the New York Giants in 2018.
In his final season in the orange uniform, Robinson had 18 rushing touchdowns, 1,580 rushing yards, and 19 catches for two touchdowns in just 12 games. He also won the Doak-Walker Trophy awarded to the best running back in the country.
Before arriving in the NCAA, the native of Arizona had also attracted a lot of attention in his native state by twice winning the trophy for the best high school player.
Now the second question is what is it that earns him so much interest and appreciation.
At 5’11” and 215lbs, Robinson is an unstoppable TGV when the ball is wedged between his biceps and pectoral. His feet are nimble and his footwork is hypnotic. He can run lines and find a line of flight both inside and outside the defensive wall. He has a vision of the game superior to the average of his contemporaries allowing him to anticipate the play of defensive players for miles around. It is also excellent by air, to capture balloons. He also maintains a very low center of gravity, making tackles even more difficult for his opponents.
Even if indulging in the game of comparisons is often a bad idea, it helps to understand a little better the profile of a player when it is still unknown to many amateurs.
Robinson’s style is oddly similar to that of Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb for robustness and explosiveness. And to Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley for versatility, creativity and foot speed.
During the week of the draft, former recruiters and experts invited to various panels had such faith in his potential that some argued that Robinson could have a career comparable to that of LaDainian Tomlinson.
Nothing less.
Robinson will obviously be the envy of many fans when, caught between a soft drink and potato chips leaving their fingertips orange, they will have to choose him at the running back position.
With the excitement around the Falcons player, some will take the risk. If we can thus qualify his selection. Still, the few times running backs have garnered so much interest, they’ve been pretty effective in their draft season.
Because, ultimately, that is where the doubt lies. Dominating in the college ranks is one thing. Doing it in the best league in the world is quite another.
However, several players in his position a few years ago have negotiated the transition well.
Since 2012, five running backs have been selected between first and eighth in the NFL Draft.
Barkley, in 2018, had 11 rushing touchdowns and 1,307 rushing yards in 16 games.
Leonard Fournette, picked fourth overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2017, has 9 touchdowns and 1,040 rushing yards in 13 games.
Christian McCaffrey, drafted seventh overall by the Carolina Panthers in 2017, had two touchdowns and rushed for 435 yards in 16 games.
Ezekiel Elliott, selected fourth overall by the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, had 15 touchdowns and rushed for 1,631 yards, an NFL high that year, in 15 games.
Finally, Trent Richardson, drafted by the Cleveland Browns in third place in 2012, had accumulated 11 touchdowns and 950 yards in 15 meetings.
Now the ball is in Robinson’s court. It remains to be seen if he will be able to live up to the expectations and if he will be able to dispel the worries of the millions of Sunday general managers who will have chosen him, for better or for worse.
