Intervention against strong franc – “the SNB probably an indicative value of 1.05″The Euro has gained against the Swiss franc in the last few days significantly. Economists on the development on the currency market.8 Kommentare8Nicht only when the stock is at the Moment, a lot of movement in the market: Hectic activity on the financial markets.KEYSTONE
The sight deposits at the Swiss national Bank (SNB) dropped in the last week. It is the first week decline since January.
in Concrete terms, the deposits of the Federal government and the banks were on 5. June 680,1 billion Swiss francs, or about 1.5 billion below the level in the previous week.
The last decline on the week view, there was at 13. January. Since then, sight deposits have increased to around 95 billion, with the week plus up to 13.5 billion fraud. For comparison: In the whole of last year the increase had amounted to only around 10 billion.
The development of sight deposits is considered to be an indication whether the SNB intervened in the foreign exchange market to weaken the Swiss franc. The Central Bank buys foreign currencies and credits the banks with the corresponding Swiss francs amount on its SNB account.
And the SNB had recently acknowledged that you have kidney interv. Because the Swiss franc was sought after in the environment of Corona as a “safe Investment haven” and was getting more and more expensive. A Swiss francs cost beginning of January almost to 1.09 francs. In may, this rate fell to 1,0464.
Far far of 1.05
“It was not for the SNB, a guideline value of 1.05, below the rates should fall,” says Caroline Hilb, head of investment strategy and analysis at St. Galler Kantonalbank. Finally, the SNB did not need to defend this course.
Indeed, the Euro has recovered against the Swiss franc last significantly. The price rose within days to around 1,09. “At this level it does not need any interventions,” said Hilb.
As the main reasons for the current “Frank weakness” apply to the announced economic stimulus programs in Germany and, in particular, in the Euro-zone. “This has reduced the risks of a new Euro crisis, and, accordingly, the Euro has gained in value,” says CS-Economist Maxime Botteron. He therefore assumes that the SNB had to intervene in the last week.
On the other hand, he and Hilb however it is also assumed that the SNB was able to throw currency on the market. “The decline in the current accounts has probably other reasons,” said Botteron.
is Conceivable is, for example, that the banks required in connection with the corona loans less liquidity. Such a show also in the current accounts and, thus, in the case of sight deposits.
be Wary of the experts are also in your forecast for the future development of the Euro-Swiss franc exchange rate, and thus possible further interventions. In the case of the CS, the current forecast for the rate is 1.10 in twelve months, and thus no further massive Frank weakening is expected. And, in the case of St. Galler KB Caroline Hilb also sees a little more potential. “Everything that goes on at 1.09, would be a welcome Surprise.”
on The contrary, she said that the risks had not disappeared. “Turning back to the current positive market sentiment is also likely to be the Swiss franc stronger again.”
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