Four of the top prospects heading into the 2023 Draft, Connor Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson and Will Smith, were given the red carpet Monday in Las Vegas on the sidelines of the Stanley Cup Finals.
The foursome are no doubt already on their way to Buffalo to participate in the evaluation sessions set up for NHL teams and their scouts. This will be the final step in fine-tuning everyone’s rankings ahead of the draft, which takes place in Nashville on June 28-29.
The evaluation of hopes remains a very imprecise science, we often hear. Take Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith. Bedard was playing in the Junior League West with 16-20 year olds; Fantilli in the American college ranks with players aged 19-23; Carlsson played against professionals in the Swedish Elite League (SHL) and Smith, with the American development program, faced about thirty teams in the USHL, an American junior circuit less strong than the Canadian junior leagues, and thirty games against clubs in the NCAA, a much more seasoned league.
Bedard had 143 points, including 71 goals, in just 57 games with the Regina Pats; Fantilli 65 points, including 30 goals, in 36 games at Michigan; Carlsson 25 points, including 10 goals, in 44 games at Örebro and Will Smith 127 points, including 51 goals, in 60 games in the American development program.
To untangle the whole thing, we must first identify the league in which these young people evolve. Carlsson plays in the toughest circuit and Smith has the easiest opposition.
* We will mention Bedard in the exercise, but he remains an exceptional hope and will be drafted first without the slightest doubt.
Scouts always look forward to the World Junior Championship since it is a rare event where the best prospects meet. This year, Bedard has eclipsed all his rivals with 23 points in seven games.
Fantilli was more low-key with five points in seven games and Carlsson had six points. The Swede had a much better tournament than the Canadian according to a majority of observers. Smith failed to earn a position with the U.S. Junior Team.
The World Under-18 Championship remains another important fixture, but it can confuse scouts as the best are not always there. This year for example, Bedard was not there because he would have wasted his time, Carlsson and Fantilli were not eligible because of their age. They celebrated their 18th birthday between September 15 and December 31, so they are considered late in the industry jargon. Will Smith’s 20 points in just seven games is impressive, of course, but it needs an asterisk.
Finally, there is the World Championship, which mainly brings together players from teams eliminated from the NHL within the major nations. Only a handful of repechage candidates are invited.
Last year, only Juraj Slafkovsky, Simon Nemec, David Jiricek and Marco Kasper took part. The most gifted of their vintage and those whose chances of entering the NHL quickly are the best are invited.
This tournament is short, of course, but remains a good measuring instrument since it is the only occasion where hopefuls can rub shoulders with players from the National League. Slafkovsky, Kasper, Jiricek and Nemec have also been drafted in the top eight and the first three have played games in the NHL this winter. Shane Wright was the only other.
This year, only Fantilli, Carlsson, right-handed defender David Reinbacher, with Austria, and center Oscar Moelgaard, with Denmark, have had that honor. Bedard chose to ignore it. The top three are expected to be drafted into the top eight this year. Carlsson played center of Sweden’s first line and had five points in eight games.
Reinbacher, also a late player, played an important role in the top four and had three assists. Like Carlsson, he played against professionals this winter, in Kloten, in the Swiss National League.
Fantilli was smoldering in the NCAA, where it’s not always easy to make your mark at 18, but more discreet in major international tournaments. Will Smith hasn’t been invited to these big events, but should we give him bad marks?
We can measure the value of Smith by comparing its production to that of hopefuls from previous cuvées. Third overall pick last year, Logan Cooley played at the World Junior Championship, but not at the World Championship. He had 75 points in 51 games in the American development program in his year of eligibility, a performance significantly lower than Smith’s.
Date of birth is also an important factor. Fantilli is one of the oldest in his cuvée, Bedard one of the youngest. They are almost ten months apart. Bedard’s exploits are even more remarkable. Carlsson is a late, but born in late December, just two months before Smith.
For European players, the statistics do not have the same value depending on the country in which you play. The KHL in Russia remains the strongest, followed, in order, by the SHL in Sweden, the Liiga in Finland, the Extraliga in the Czech Republic, then the NLA in Switzerland or the DEL in Germany.
There is also, of course, the Russian factor, due to the invasion of Ukraine, but to the philosophy of the KHL teams, resistant to the idea of releasing their young players for the benefit of the NHL. Matvei Michkov, the Russian Connor Bedard according to some observers, is at the heart of these questions.
Juraj Slafkovsky remained an extremely difficult case to assess last year. He dominated despite his young age in the World Championship with Slovakia, 9 points in 8 games, but produced more modestly in the season with TPS Turku, in Liiga, with only 10 points in 31 games. However, he was evolving in an environment that was not his own, 2000 kilometers from his home.
The neophyte is still caught today comparing Slafkovsky and Cooley without taking into account the respective leagues in which these two young players play. Cooley looks good with 60 points in 39 games at Minnesota University in the NCAA, but would he have done better in the NHL than Slafkovsky, 10 points in 31 games, but against the world’s elite?
Beyond production, scouts will rely on their eyes and ears: natural abilities, understanding of the game, self-sacrifice, leadership, the environment in which the young person evolves, his entourage, his strength of character, its ceiling or its floor in terms of physical development.
Not an easy job!
The Blue Jackets would have preferred Mike Babcock. And today, the New York Rangers would not consider him for the coaching job and would not even intend to offer him an interview, claims the New York Post daily.
John Hynes and Peter Laviolette, recently fired from Nashville and Washington respectively, were the two favorites for the job.
The Ducks (Greg Cronin), Predators (Andrew Brunette) and Capitals (Spencer Carbery) found their man recently. It remains the Calgary Flames, but we associate them with Gerard Gallant.
These hires come at a time when Patrick Roy has just covered himself with glory by winning the Memorial Cup with the Quebec Remparts. However, he would be an interesting candidate to work with a young team. Let’s see if a position becomes available elsewhere eventually.
1- The Golden Knights have just won a second game and the Quebecers are at the heart of their success. Richard Labbé’s analysis.
2- Cole Caufield impresses Alexandre Pratt in terms of anticipated scoring chances. He would have scored 11 more goals than expected from a normal striker.
3- Will Smith would not hate to end up in Montreal, where he is very familiar with Kent Hughes. A text by Richard Labbé, definitely very busy this week!
