Did the Canadiens just sabotage their chances of drafting a potential star by giving up their 31st and 37th picks to get young center Alex Newhook?
The statistics do not suggest that. According to internal data, a National League team would have a 3% chance of finding a star by drafting between 31st and 45th. The rate increases to 30% for a regular NHL player.
Although he failed to thrive in Colorado at 22, he remains an established National League player, a first-round pick by the way, drafted immediately after Cole Caufield in 2019.
He will have managed to amass 30 or more points in his first two full seasons with the Avalanche despite using less than 13 minutes per game and very few power play opportunities behind the MacKinnon, Rantanen, Nichushkin, Kadri and company.
In his first year in Denver, where he started the season at 20, he would have approached 40 points over a full season. His performance can be compared to that of Alexis Lafrenière, whom we would certainly have welcomed with open arms in Montreal for these two draft picks. Lafrenière will be 22 in early October. Only eight months separate these two young men. Like Newhook, Lafrenière found himself stuck within a front club and with very little patience with his youngsters due to his aspirations.
The Canadian therefore expects increased production from Newhook with increased uptime and greater tolerance for errors. So that’s well worth picks at 31st and 37th in his eyes.
Of course, there is always a way to find gold nuggets from rank 31 onwards. But they are rarer. Take for example the 31st and 37th picks over fifteen years, between 2004 and 2018.
Of thirty players, 23 could not settle permanently in the NHL (77%), twelve played less than ten games in the National League (40%) and seven (23%) did not play the least encounter in the Bettman circuit.
Among the seven players who broke through, we find a number one goalkeeper, Jacob Markstrom, an offensive defenseman, Justin Faulk, a defensive defenseman, but very useful to the Bruins, Brandon Carlo, a center in midfield, Boone Jenner, who, in due to injuries, was never able to amass at least 50 points in a season, and three support players, Brendan Lemieux, Tyler Pitlick and Klim Kostin.
With 28 picks in the first three rounds in the last six rounds, the Canadian could afford to sacrifice two more distant picks for this interesting bet.
For comparison, the Colorado Avalanche have drafted 15 in the same span, five of which have already been traded. We understand GM Chris MacFarland wanting to give his scouts a few more picks to replenish the prospect bank, although the 37th overall has already ended up in Tampa for support player Ross Colton!
If the Canadiens had wanted to present an offer similar to that of the Los Angeles Kings for Pierre-Luc Dubois, he would have had to sacrifice Kirby Dach first.
The centerpiece of the Jets-Kings deal, Gabriel Vilardi, is an 11th overall pick in 2017, 23, 41 points, including 23 goals, in 63 games last year, 30 goals and 53 points in the season. pro rata of an 82 game season.
Dach is also a first-round pick, third overall in 2019, 22, 38 points, including 14 goals in 58 games, 54 points, including 20 goals, prorated from an 82-game season.
We would have added a mid-training player in his late twenties, like Christian Dvorak, although Alex Iaffalo produced more than the Canadiens’ third center with 36 points in 59 games last year.
Jesse Ylönen might have some equivalence with Rasmus Kupari, even though he was drafted in the second round in 2018 and Kupari was 20th overall the same year. Both are solid in the American League, but more timid in the NHL.
Plus, Nick Suzuki should have been told looking him straight in the eye that he’ll be making $700,000 less per season than the team’s most recent acquisition while captaining CH and their offensive contributions compare.
The Canadian would also have exchanged in Dach a promising 22-year-old center under contract for another three years at 3.3 million per season for a 25-year-old center under contract for eight years at an annual salary of 8.5 million, but would have at least dumped Dvorak’s contract at $4.5 million for two years, if Winnipeg wanted it, of course.
We understand a little better why Dubois will play in Los Angeles and not in Montreal.
