Alex Newhook scored twice Wednesday night in Anaheim. He scored five points in his last three games to bring his record to 12 points in 19 games. At that rate, the 22-year-old would score a career-high 52 points. If it seems established that he is more effective on the wing, he is quietly cementing his place in the first trio.
Drafted 16th in 2019, one place behind Cole Caufield, he is also only three points behind him, with one more goal, without participating in the first wave of power play.
For some, the Canadian paid dearly to get Newhook by offering first and second round picks and young Gianni Fairbrother. The thought of a first-round pick catches the imagination, but a 31st overall pick doesn’t come close to having the value of a top-10 pick, or even a top-15 pick. success of a 37th overall pick, in the second round, is even slimmer.
Between 25th and 40th, the chances of getting your hands on an established player are slim. According to the data, a National League team would have a 3% chance of landing a star by drafting between 31st and 45th. The rate increases to 30% for a regular NHL player. Let’s take the Canadian’s choices in these waters between 2012 and 2018.
Out of nine players, only Romanov belongs to a defensive top 4 or one of the top three lines. Is this attributable to the Canadian’s failures in the draft? Let’s then expand the sample to all NHL teams with the choices between the 31st and 37th choices inclusive, during five vintages taken at random, between 2014 and 2018 inclusive.
The first instinct will be to bring up Sebastian Aho, a steal at No. 35 in 2015, the number one center for the Carolina Hurricanes for several seasons now. We also find the number one goaltender of the Vancouver Canucks, Thatcher Demko, one of the best forwards of the St. Louis Blues, Jordan Kyrou, 37 goals and 73 points last year, Ivan Barbashev, smoking in the playoffs with the Golden Vegas Knights, Brandon Carlo, the Boston Bruins’ fourth defenseman in many seasons, and Mattias Samuelsson and Nicolas Hague, defenders similar to Carlo.
Let’s look at the odds now. That’s seven top players out of 35 picks, a win rate of just 20%, but with only three stars, for a rate of just 9%.
Additionally, 19 of those picks played fewer than 100 games in the National Hockey League. Your chances of drafting a marginal or American League player are therefore around 54%. Twenty-eight of those 35 picks aren’t from a top-three line, top-four defense, or starting goalie position in the NHL.
Do the math. We offer you a young 21-year-old forward drafted in the top 16 four years earlier. This boy has been in the National League for two years, but has not lived up to the expectations of a powerhouse, the Colorado Avalanche. Still, he had two seasons of 30 or more points before he turned 22.
You have two draw tickets. Both each give you a 20% chance of getting your hands on a player from one of the top three lines or a top defensive quartet, but only a 9% chance of finding a star. We offer you Alex Newhook in return for these two tickets. Are you doing the transaction?
Cale Makar was not going to let Quinn Hughes escape so easily with the defense scoring title. Makar had two points on Wednesday in 24:36 of usage, one point more than Quinn Hughes, employed more than 27 minutes by Rick Tocchet, and the Avalanche defeated the Canucks 5-2.
Two of the top three scorers in the NHL are now defensemen, Hughes with 31 points in 20 games and Makar with 29 points, but in 18 games. The only intruder in the top three was Hughes’ teammate J. T. Miller, with 30 points.
We are also talking about two defenders 6 feet or less, drafted fourth overall in 2017 in the case of Makar and seventh overall in 2018 for Hughes because the first to pick perhaps did not dare to take a small defender size.
By the way, Jonathan Drouin had two points in this game, in just over 13 minutes of play. He now has 5 points in 16 games.
