(Washington) Consumer confidence remains positively oriented in the United States, continuing the momentum of June, at its highest since September 2021, mainly due to the slowdown in inflation and the stability of the labor market .
The index measuring this confidence rose 12.7% from June to 72.6 points, according to the preliminary estimate by the University of Michigan released on Friday.
This estimate largely exceeds the expectations of analysts, who envisaged a more modest rise to 65.6 points, according to the consensus published by briefing.com, just one point more than its level in June (64.4 points).
“All components of the index have improved significantly, especially the long-term and short-term business climate,” detailed Joanna Hsu, director of the survey, quoted in the press release.
An increase that also concerns “all demographic groups, with the exception of consumers with the lowest incomes”, she added.
US consumer confidence is now “halfway between its all-time low, reached in June 2022, and the level seen before the pandemic”.
This improvement in confidence should “be supported by easing price pressure and lead to higher spending in the near term,” HFE chief economist Rubeela Farroqi said in a note.
As for inflation, it is expected to be around 3.4% by the end of the year, up slightly from June expectations (3.3%).
The CPI inflation index, from which pensions are calculated, was down sharply in June, to 3%, according to data released Wednesday by the Ministry of Labor.
The other inflation index, PCE, on which the Federal Reserve relies to decide its monetary policy orientations, will be published at the end of the month, just after the next Fed meeting, scheduled for 25 and 26 July.
