Each month, Météo France issues a long-term bulletin of climate trends for the coming months, providing an analysis of average weather conditions for the next few months. This information is not limited to the daily weather forecast, but makes it possible to identify major trends in terms of temperature and precipitation. Immerse yourself in the forecasts to anticipate the climatic conditions to come in France.
According to the trends, temperatures for July and August 2023 should be higher than normal throughout France. According to the probability scenarios, it is more likely that temperatures in mainland France will be 60% warmer than seasonal normals, 20% in line with seasonal normals and 20% colder than seasonal normals.
While the South, from the Pyrenees to the Mediterranean basin, could also experience wetter conditions than usual. As far as atmospheric circulation is concerned, the Mediterranean basin is expected to be subject to disturbances more often than usual, while more frequent than normal anticyclonic conditions are expected from the British Isles to the Baltic Sea.
As far as precipitation is concerned, forecasts indicate that the weather from the Pyrenees to the Mediterranean regions and Corsica will be wetter than normal, due to the increased frequency of disturbed conditions throughout the Mediterranean basin.
It should be noted that summer is a generally dry period in the Mediterranean basin, and a wetter-than-normal scenario does not necessarily guarantee high amounts of rainfall or an end to the drought prevailing in many areas.
The probabilities of precipitation scenarios in mainland France will be mainly concentrated from the Pyrenees region to Corsica. There is a 50% chance that precipitation will be above seasonal normals, 25% chance that it will be seasonally normal, and 25% chance that it will be less than seasonal normal.
