After showing resilience since the start of the year, the real GDP of the Quebec economy contracted by 0.4% in April according to data updated Tuesday by the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
“After four months of consecutive increases, this drop in real GDP in Quebec in April contrasts with the stagnation of the economy observed in Canada as a whole,” notes Daren King, economist at the National Bank, in an analysis note.
“The 0.4% decrease in real GDP is slightly more pronounced than the 0.3% that was anticipated,” notes Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins.
“Even if the decline in real GDP in April was amplified by certain temporary factors (power outages, strike by federal civil servants, etc.), the Quebec economy is showing several signs of weakness that will persist over the coming months,” warns Ms. Bégin in an analysis note.
“The slowing labor market and rising interest rates portend headwinds for consumers in Quebec. As a result, the province’s economy is on shaky foundations and our scenario calls for a period of real GDP contraction through early 2024.”
At the National Bank, economist Daren King anticipates that “for the coming months, GDP growth (real in Quebec) should continue to oscillate around the neutral point, while the impact of the increase in interest rates should be felt more. »
However, he concludes, “I believe that a recession is still avoidable in Quebec given the financial strength of households. »
