(New York) Oil prices climbed again on Thursday, to their highest level since November, still driven by fears of insufficient supply in the face of demand for black gold which is not weakening, with, now, in view, the psychological threshold of 100 dollars per barrel.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in November appreciated by 1.98%, to close at $93.70.
As for the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in October, it advanced 1.85%, to 90.16 dollars. WTI had not crossed the $90 mark since early November.
“The trend continues,” commented Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates, with WTI rising 14% in three weeks, while Brent rose almost 13%.
Estimates released Tuesday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with a supply shortfall of 3.3 million barrels compared to demand in the fourth quarter, a gap largest observed in 16 years, have strained a little more of a market already on edge.
“The market is watching stocks shrink” with anxiety, according to Andy Lipow, while Saudi Arabia and Russia have pledged to deprive it of 1.3 million barrels per day by the end of the year, or more of 100 million barrels.
In this context, ANZ bank analysts see Brent reaching $100 by the end of the year.
At odds with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, frowned upon by American oil companies, President Joe Biden has no obvious lever to calm prices, underlines Bill O’Grady of Confluence Investment.
This “especially since it has drawn so much on the American strategic reserves” (SPR), which fell in July to their lowest level in almost 40 years, “that I do not see anyone supporting a new drawdown” of the SPR to make bring prices back down, explains the analyst.
In the United States, the price of gasoline is once again approaching the symbolic threshold of 4 dollars per gallon (3.78 liters), at 3,858 dollars on Thursday, according to the AAA association.
Black gold is the main cause of the rise in inflation in the United States, illustrated by the CPI consumer price index and the PPI producer price index, published on Wednesday and Thursday.
However, Andy Lipow does not see any effect, in the short term, of the surge in prices on demand. “We’re not there yet, because American consumers continue to spend a lot,” he says.
