The last two duels between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have been two of anthology. At Wimbledon, the young prodigy had the upper hand. In Cincinnati, the old roadster had the last word. A few days before the United States Open, we can already anticipate a third chapter in this new rivalry.
In the meantime, the debate about who is the best is raging on the Web and in the media. La Presse offers a statistical analysis to try to resolve the debate.
Since joining the professional ranks, Alcaraz has played in 74 tournaments. Both at ITF, Challenger and ATP level. It was therefore interesting to look at the performance of Djokovic after the same number of tournaments played. The Spaniard has won 12 ATP tournaments, 4 in Challenger and 3 ITF. Among these victories, there are two in Grand Slam tournaments and four in Masters 1000. At the same stage of his career, Djokovic had won nine ATP titles, three in Challenger and three ITF. Among them, a major and three in Masters 1000. Note, however, that Djokovic was playing at a time when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were at the top of their game. Still, the current world number one is having a better start to his career on this side.
As of August 21, 2023, Alcaraz is 20 years, 3 months and 16 days old. Obviously, his file remains the same as in the previous paragraph. However, at the same age, Djokovic was somewhat behind his young – but nevertheless exceptional – rival. Djoko therefore had six fewer ATP titles – including two Grand Slams and two Masters 1000 – than Alcaraz at the same age.
To compare two players and determine which is the most effective, it is inevitably necessary to dwell on the matches played against each other. Alcaraz and Djokovic met for the first time in Madrid, in 2022, on clay. Alcaraz had won in three sets. A few months ago, Djokovic got the better of a sore Alcaraz in the semi-finals of Roland-Garros. In the Wimbledon final a month ago, Alcaraz defeated the Serb in an epic duel in the final. Then, on Sunday, Djokovic took top honors in Cincinnati. They have therefore shared their four clashes so far.
To be considered the best, you have to beat the best. What better, then, than to look at their performance against top 10 players? Alcaraz has played 31 career games against top 10 players. He has won 20 of them, good for a 64.5% save percentage. On the other hand, Djokovic won 69.3% of his matches against the same group of players, triumphing 251 times out of 362. However, at the same stadium as Alcaraz, he had only 9 victories in 24 duels, for a ratio of 37 .5%.
If Novak Djokovic is considered by many to be the best player in history, it is mainly thanks to his versatility. Of his 23 major titles, he won 13 on hard courts, 7 on grass and 3 on clay. On average, in tournaments of all categories, he won 84.8% of his matches on hard courts, 80.6% on clay and 85.8% on grass. Alcaraz won an average of 75% of his hard-court matches, 82.1% on clay and 88.9% on grass.
It’s one thing to reach the final of a tournament, you still have to win it to hope to be among the greatest. Djokovic and Alcaraz are masters at taking their game up a notch when the moment demands it. Djokovic has won 95 of the 135 finals he has played, an efficiency rate of 70.3%. This ratio decreases somewhat, to 65.7%, in major tournament finals, with a record of 23-12. Like Alcaraz at the same age, he had played in two Grand Slam finals, winning one of them. At the same stage of his career as the Spaniard, he had won 9 of his 12 finals. Alcaraz have won 12 times in 16 finals, for an equivalent ratio of 75%. However, he won his two finals in Grand Slam tournaments.
The rise of Carlos Alcaraz is expeditious, even historic, and that is what makes it remarkable. The young Spaniard broke into the top 10 at the age of 18 years, 11 months and 21 days. He ascended to the world throne a few weeks later, at 19 years, 4 months and 8 days. For his part, Djokovic broke into the top 10 at the age of 19 years, 9 months and 25 days. After years of hard work behind Federer and Nadal, he finally became world number one at 24 years, 1 month and 12 days.
