(New York) Oil prices resumed their rise on Friday, stimulated by the low level of US crude stocks, which are helping to tighten the market, already worried about insufficient supply.
The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent for delivery in November rose 0.81%, to close at $90.65, a closing high since mid-November.
As for the barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with maturity in October, it gained 0.73%, to 87.51 dollars.
After a session of consolidation, with some profit taking, the price of black gold regained height, driven by the report of the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), published Thursday.
It showed that commercial crude inventories fell by a much larger than expected amount, by 6.3 million barrels compared to analysts’ expectations of a third.
US reserves are now at their lowest level since early December. They haven’t been this weak at this time of year for five years.
Gasoline stocks in the United States are also at a modest volume, more observed since November.
“These numbers are likely to drive up crude and gasoline prices,” commented Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.
“This trend has been at work for five weeks, and inventories have declined by 29 million barrels” over this period, insisted the analyst.
The effect that the decline in stocks produces on prices is accentuated by the fact that American strategic reserves have not been so depleted for almost 40 years, adds, in a note, Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank.
At the same time, “the United States is producing at a record pace, but with the decline in operating wells, it may be difficult to keep pace or increase,” Andy Lipow warns.
After having increased significantly until the beginning of the year, the number of active wells has fallen again, with a stock equivalent to what it was 19 months ago, before the surge in prices following the invasion of the ‘Ukraine.
Driven by the announcement on Tuesday of the extension of production reductions by Saudi Arabia and exports by Russia, “prices remain driven by supply”, considered insufficient in relation to demand, recalls, in a note, Edward Moya, of Oanda.
In the last quarter of 2023, the imbalance between supply and demand is expected to reach two million barrels per day, “which is enough to offset uncertainties about growth in China and Europe,” estimates Edward Moya.
Andy Lipow expects Brent to be at $95 by Christmas, with WTI around $90.
