We analyzed the Canadiens’ drafts from 2014 to 2018 on Wednesday. Only two fourth-line players remain, Michael Pezzetta and Jake Evans, from the 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 vintages, and Jordan Harris, Jesse Ylönen and Kirby Dach, obtained for Alexander Romanov, from that of 2018.
These five years will therefore have very little influence in the reconstruction of the Canadian. We nevertheless observe a significant change in the team’s philosophy starting in 2018, under Marc Bergevin: an abundance of choices accumulated in what the CEO called in his own language a reset on the fly.
Thus, between 2014 and 2017, the CH will draft only once before the 25th rank, in 2016, with defender Mikhail Sergachev, 9th choice overall, inadvertently traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Montreal organization will draft only 24 times in these four vintages, including 11 times in the first rounds, for an average of six players per year, and 2.75 players in the first three rounds, including five in 2017.
2018 marks a turning point with eleven picks, including the third overall (Kotkaniemi), four in the first two rounds and six in the first six rounds.
This vintage will set the tone for the following ones. Between 2019 and 2023, CH obtained 47 picks, for an average of 9.4 players per year, including 19 in the first three rounds, for an average of 3.8 players. Montreal has been in the top 16 four times, including twice in the top five. First and second round picks in 2023 were also used to acquire Alex Newhook.
If this draft were to be done again today, Caufield would probably be chosen in the top five. Unearthing a potential scorer of 40 goals or more in fifteenth place remains a smoking gun, probably the best for Trevor Timmins and his gang, with Sergachev in 2016, since the 2007 vintage. CH dared to draft a 20-year-old player in seventh place , Harvey-Pinard, and the bet paid off. The young man, against all odds, amassed 20 points, including 14 goals, in 34 games last year, 33 goals and almost 50 points prorated for a full season. We will have to avoid labeling him as a fourth-line player. You shouldn’t expect much from the others, but getting two vintage NHL players, including a possible star, remains a very satisfactory harvest.
Another home run, this time in 16th place, with Guhle, one of the Canadiens’ most promising young defenders, already playing more than 20 minutes per game in his first season in the NHL last year, at just 20 years old (21 years as of January 2023). Guhle also had 18 points in 44 games without being used on the power play, at least rarely. We can already see him in the medium and long term as a top-pair defender, capable of neutralizing the best opposing attackers and amassing around forty points per season.
For the others, Tuch, a power winger, will continue his career at Boston University, and he still seems in the Canadian’s plans despite lackluster production, Mysak does not inspire much hope, Sean Farrell will have to prove that he can have an impact in the NHL, after a modest debut in Montreal, and goaltender Dobes, smoking in the NCAA, begins without a season in the professional ranks in Laval this year.
Last draft of Trevor Timmins before his dismissal. The choice of right-handed defender Logan Mailloux was highly controversial after he asked teams not to choose him because of his misdeed against a young woman in Sweden. Mailloux remains a promising defender who nevertheless needs to improve several facets of his game. He will have the opportunity to do so with the Laval Rocket. He has excellent size at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, a powerful shot, good straight-line mobility, but he can be vulnerable defensively and doesn’t always make the right decisions with and without the puck.
Riley Kidney, Joshua Roy and William Trudeau had great careers in the QMJHL. Roy, the hero of the most recent World Junior Championship, undoubtedly has more tools in his chest than Kidney, even if the latter produced more last year in the junior ranks. Trudeau could surprise. We were hesitant to give him a job in the American League at 20 years old last year, he became one of the Rocket’s best defenders. Kapanen, a center, is having some success in Finland, but we won’t see him at the Canadiens’ camp this year.
Some are already daring to call Slafkovsky a flop because of his 10 points in 39 games last year. He nevertheless remains the only player from his vintage to have stuck with the NHL. He has a dream size at 6-foot-3 and 238 pounds, such mobility and dexterity. He may not become the big star hoped for, but will be worth his weight in gold, especially in the playoffs when reaction time shrinks, if he develops adequately in the coming years.
Owen Beck and Filip Mesar, had very good training camps, especially Beck. We can see this one as a possible third line center, maybe even second. Mesar hasn’t been bad in the junior ranks, but not great either, as first-round picks usually are. He could continue his apprenticeship in Laval.
Defender Lane Hutson was still available at the end of the second round due to his small size. He could become the best player of this vintage among the Canadian’s choices, even if Slafkovsky was a first choice overall. Hutson broke records in his first NCAA season with 48 points in 39 games at Boston University. He even participated in the World Championship with the American national team, and NHL players, and obtained six points in nine games. He’s now 5-foot-10 and 161 pounds and has the smarts to not get caught short in the defensive zone. He will play at least a second season at Boston University before joining the Canadian.
Another left-handed defender, Adam Engström, surprised by playing a leading role in Rögle, in the Swedish First Division (SHL). Engström, only 19 years old, had 16 points in 43 games and participated in the World Championship where he played as part of the first pair.
This vintage, the first of the new administration led by Jeff Gorton, Kent Hughes, Nick Bobrov and Martin Lapointe, could be the most important of the last ten years.
Two things to remember from this vintage: the Canadian preferred a less flamboyant right-handed defenseman, Reinbacher, to the popular but risky choice, Matvei Michkov, and Montreal turned to three goalies, Jacob Fowler, from the USHL, Quentin Miller , of the Quebec Remparts, and Yevgeni Volokhin, of the KHL.
Note also that the Canadian gave up his first-round picks, 31st overall, and second-round picks, 37th overall, to get Alex Newhook.
Reinbacher, Xhekaj and Miller are expected to participate in the rookie tournament next week, the others will be retained in their respective leagues.
GM Pierre Dorion and the Senators managed to retain another of their gems, young defenseman Jake Sanderson. He has just signed an eight-year contract for 64 million, or 8 million on average per season. Fifth overall pick in 2020, Sanderson impressed in his first season in the NHL, at age 20, with 32 points in 77 games but also, above all, remarkable confidence and intelligence for a youngster of his age. By the end of the season, he was already playing between 25 and 30 minutes. Sanderson, Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Thomas Chabot, all 26 years old or younger, are under contract through 2028, minimum 2030 in the case of Sanderson, Norris and Stützle.
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