Some might mistakenly believe that rebuilding only means sinking in the rankings in order to collect top draft picks for a few years.
This is one element among others, but the growth, individual and collective, of the young people in place also constitutes an essential element for successful reconstruction.
The Canadian will reach the quarter mark of the season in California this weekend. The current ugly streak, only two victories, in overtime, in ten matches, places him three points behind last year’s performance after 18 matches, colleague Simon-Olivier Lorange reminded us on Tuesday.
The Canadian had a very young team last year and it is even more so with the departures of Mike Hoffman, Jonathan Drouin and Joel Edmundson, but for the moment, he has not yet established proof that he was superior to last year. Perhaps this long trip to the American West will allow CH’s young players to take off.
The situation is obviously distorted by the unfortunate loss of Kirby Dach in the second meeting of the season. Dach showed the most marked progression last year, at age 21, with 38 points in 58 games and effective defensive play at 6-foot-4, 217 pounds. He eased the pressure on senior center Nick Suzuki.
This gives us at 24 the expected performance: 16 points in 18 games, en route to a season of 72 points, a generally adequate defensive performance, without being a candidate for the Selke Trophy, in short, a sure bet without being a MacKinnon or a Matthews.
Despite his 15 points in 18 games, Cole Caufield needs to give more. He scored only five goals, but only one at five-on-five. However, he demonstrated last year that he was not just an offensive specialist with 19 of his 26 goals in similar circumstances. Let’s see how long we keep it separated from its Suzuki companion.
Alex Newhook is an interesting acquisition. He seems to reveal himself more on the wing. He brings speed to a trio. Without being transcendent, he can improve an offensive trio. He’s only 22 years old and producing at a pace of 55 points in a full season. It’s rare to draft a player of this value with a 31st or 37th overall pick.
The loss of Dach also hurts in terms of the individual growth of certain young people. Christian Dvorak finds himself on a second trio by default. The offensive qualities are obviously not the same. It’s difficult to ask Juraj Slafkovsky and Caufield to produce with a center with limited offensive potential. Slafkovsky, 19, is nevertheless taking steps in the right direction, enough that there is no longer any suggestion of sending him back to the minors.
Don’t dream of a Jaromir Jagr. But if he manages to score 30 goals per season while winning his trench wars with his imposing 6-foot-4, 230-pound physique, Montreal will have won its bet.
Defender Kaiden Guhle is probably the young player whose progression is the most spectacular, even if he was already very good last year. Guhle, just 21, played 24 minutes in Boston. He is by far the most reliable guard defensively and he has amassed six points in fourteen games without participating in the power play.
Acquired for Artturi Lehkonen before the March 2021 trade deadline, right-handed Justin Barron, a rare commodity in Montreal, is establishing himself as a relatively reliable fourth defenseman with some offensive potential, after a half-hearted training camp. Jordan Harris and Arber Xhekaj have shown their limits since the start of the season, although Xhekaj’s robustness and his ability to play peacemaker give him interesting relief.
Otherwise Samuel Montembeault, still considered a young goalkeeper at 27, is also improving. His statistics are higher than last year. He shows consistency and takes the means to obtain a contract for a few seasons.
As we can see, there are still gaps in training at this stage of reconstruction. There is still a lack of impact players to allow CH to aspire to a Stanley Cup. Will Dach become that dominant center when he returns to play next year?
If Caufield does not resume being a threat at five-on-five, we will have to hope for the arrival of another impact winger, either through the draft or on the free agent market in two or three years.
Despite producing 18 points in 15 games in his first professional season in the American League, at 20 years old, Joshua Roy must prove that he can be just as productive in the NHL. Too early to say, too early to rule it out. Filip Mesar has 22 points in 11 games since being sent back to the Ontario Major Junior League. He remains a small attacker in a team that has several, so let’s see what happens next.
In defense, David Reinbacher is expected to be a first-pair defender, without becoming a big star. But he could form a solid duo with Guhle in two or three years. And we should not dismiss too quickly the 20-year-old left-handed defender Adam Engström, who was even better than the previous season at Rögle.
Lane Hutson, 19, is producing at a mind-blowing rate in the NCAA. He has 14 points, including 8 goals in 11 games, after a season of 48 points in 39 games in his rookie year, an output higher than the output of Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Adam Fox at the same age. But they managed to establish themselves in the NHL despite their small size because they were also able to be effective on equal numbers. Hutson doesn’t have the speed of the other three. But his hockey IQ remains formidable. You never know how a smaller defenseman will adapt to the National Hockey League until you see him in the National Hockey League. We hope for the CH that the transition will be successful.
The more we think about it, the more crucial the 2024 draft, with a top-5 pick increasingly likely, could become. Important pieces are still missing.
Jake Allen is third on the list of goalies likely to interest the Edmonton Oilers, according to colleague Frank Seravalli. The photo of the Canadiens goalie even adorns its text. Even though he rightly points out Allen’s fragile health, he seems to overestimate his value by saying that the price to obtain him could be high.
It’s hard to see the Oilers, already squeezed by the salary cap, acquiring an oft-injured 33-year-old goalie, at least decent in Montreal (he posted an average above 3.30 and a lower save rate at .906 over the last three seasons) with an annual salary of 3.8 million for this year and next. The CH could absorb a portion of his salary, but is he interested in doing so given the low return to be expected for his services? Not to mention that even at 1.9 million, Edmonton would still have some gymnastics to do salary-wise?
Nothing is impossible in hockey. Ken Holland and his advisors may have enormous admiration for Allen. If the line bites, you might as well get the fish out of the water ASAP!
