The Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, and Canadiens have a few things in common: they play in the Atlantic Division and are rebuilding.
The four will likely miss the playoffs again – only Buffalo still holds a tenuous hope – but their general managers work first for the sustainability of their organization.
We reported on the strengths of the Sabers and Red Wings on Wednesday and Thursday. Today, the turn of the Ottawa Senators.
Unlike the other three, the Senators have accelerated their rebuilding process over the past year. They gave up two first-round picks and three second-round picks for now 25-year-old winger Alex DeBrincat and defenseman Jakob Chychrun.
Even so, they will miss the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season. They maintain a very interesting core and will be competitive in the coming years, but their window of favorable success may shrink in the long term compared to their three section rivals.
Their first two centers, 21-year-old Tim Stützle and 23-year-old Josh Norris, were traded from Erik Karlsson in 2018.
Stützle, drafted third overall in 2020 by virtue of the first-round pick obtained from the Sharks, has just hatched with 86 points, including 37 goals, in 76 games. No Senators player had scored more than 85 points since Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson in 2008, when Luke Richardson and Martin Lapointe were still playing hockey.
Norris’ injury hurt the Senators. The youngster has only played eight games. He had 55 points in 66 games the previous season, a full-season production of 68 points.
With Stützle, Norris and Shane Pinto, 22, 34 points, including 20 goals, in his first full season in the NHL, the Senators have a top-notch backbone, along with Ridly Greig, a complete young player.
On the wing, it could thin out if we don’t retain Alex DeBrincat long term. Brady Tkachuk is obviously a safe bet of talent and power. Tkachuk just hit 80 points for the first time in his career. Drake Batherson, 24, is a strong point producer, still 61 this winter, but has scored 14 of his 22 power play goals and almost half his points in such circumstances. His -35 record, the worst among NHL forwards after Jordan Kyrou, is no coincidence. DeBrincat isn’t far behind at -30.
Chychrun’s arrival gives the Senators a strong top-three finish with 26-year-old Thomas Chabot, one of the NHL’s busiest defensemen in recent years, still up there offensively with 41 points, and Jake Sanderson, just 20, the fifth overall pick in 2020, a revelation in his first season in the National League with 31 points and an average time in use of almost 22 minutes. Artem Zub, 27, a more defensive defender, complements the three with his own qualities.
Healthy, Chychrun is one of the good young defenders in the League. But Dorion was aware of the youngster’s injury propensity – averaging 60 games a year since his career began seven years ago – and he fell again in action shortly after his acquisition.
Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson, two right-handed defenders drafted in the first round and in whom we still had a lot of hopes not so long ago, are struggling to break through.
Erik Brannstrom, obtained for Mark Stone, will probably never become the offensive defender hoped for. But at the time, he made most CEOs salivate, so we won’t blame Pierre Dorion for his acquisition.
The guardian of the future is still not found. And that is the key position for Ottawa. 6-foot-7 giant Mads Sogaard has been heavily bet on in recent years. He’s just had a tough season, but he’s only 22.
Kevin Mandolese, Dylan Ferguson and Leevi Meriläinen all had auditions recently. Have we been patient enough with Filip Gustavsson, 24, traded to the Wild last summer for Cam Talbot?
Gustavsson has phenomenal stats in Minnesota with a 2.06 GAA and .932 save percentage. That places him second among NHL goaltenders behind Linus Ullmark of the Bruins among goaltenders who have played at least 35 games.
But no goalkeeper will ever succeed in his career in Ottawa without better support from those around him. The Senators need to learn how to defend better collectively, and we’re not just talking about defensemen here.
They have often saved the day this winter due to their powerplay success, seventh in the NHL with a 23.9% success rate, the best among clubs excluded from the playoffs.
Ottawa must not miss the train these next two seasons. There are one or two good years left for Claude Giroux, 35, 75 points this winter, and draft picks will be rare to eventually regenerate.
The Senators didn’t draft until the end of the second round in 2022, ranked 64th, don’t hold a pick until the fourth round in 2023, and their first pick in 2021, tenth overall, forward Tyler Boucher, will be at best a support player.
With three games or less to go, the fight for bottom is still between Chicago, Columbus and Anaheim. The Ducks now hold a two-point lead over the other two, but have only two games left, compared to three for the Hawks and Jackets. San Jose could still end up in third place heading into the draw, but shouldn’t slip past that.
The last team in the standings, we remind you, has a 25.5% chance of picking first place, so Connor Bedard, against 13.5% for the next team, and cannot be excluded from the top three.
After the first three prospects, Bedard, Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson, the potential seems to drop significantly, but there is always the Russian Matvei Michkov, attractive because of his immense talent, but a risky choice because of his contract status in the KHL and its origins, Russia, a country in turmoil.
