at First, it was only a small Dent, which is likely to be quickly overcome. Now it is a serious period of weakness, the power to create in the German economy: in November has shrunk, contrary to the expectations of professionals in the production industry. Compared to the previous month, the company produced 1.9 per cent fewer.
editor responsible for economic reporting, responsible for “The Lounge”.
F. A. Z.
The third decline in a row, more as a side note, also because the entire German economy had contracted in the third quarter of 2018, 0.2 percent. Economists had justified the temporary problems of the car industry – now they take a different tone. “Today’s production data, have clearly heightened the risk of a technical recession,” commented Carsten Brzeski, Germany-the chief economist of the Bank ING. Alexander Krüger, economic specialist of the Bank sees the risk of Recession as a “significantly increased”. Of a recession, Economists do not speak, when gross domestic product is growing for two consecutive quarters.
The new Figures of the industry can therefore also noisy, because it is not only the auto industry, which still suffers from the transition to new exhaust emission tests, yielded poor results. The decline affects all areas: construction, energy industry as well as manufacturers of consumer goods. On Monday, the order was also already pay for the month of November worse-than-expected.
“The fat years are over”
However, the people remain farmers despite the further decline in overall confidence. Even in the case of a recession, not a horror of the threat of the German economic scenario, comment on the Economists in unison. They continue to expect a revival of the German car industry and positive growth figures in the new year. A recession is a Technical in this case, rather, analyzed ING Economist Brzeski, “without a significant impact on the labour market”. The industry is in a good condition.
in Addition, Economists point to the intact domestic economy: thanks in part to rising wages in the German and worries consume so for economic dynamics. As a Problem many see the growing skilled labour shortage, the more difficult it companies, more and more, to grow. For the current year, the major economic research institutes expect a growth of the economy by 1.5 per cent – this would then be the tenth annual increase in a row.