The year 2018 was a surprise to the stock market in every respect an unusual year, and in 2019 could be as well. No one would have expected that the shares will collapse markets. We are also in the Sunday newspaper. For the first time since 2011, the Dax closes with losses: Minus 18 per cent, as bad as it was since the financial crisis of 2008.
Also, some of the supposed certainties, we must take on Board. Political exchanges have short legs, it was always, so little sustainable impact on the courses. 2018 proof to the contrary. The year’s trade war, the Brexit-retching, Italian interference of the new populist government and in Germany the endless Diesel debate was marked by the Trump.
No year-end rally
the lovely habit to start that in November and December, the share prices of a year-end rally, and even until then, a sad stock market years, missing investors, 2018. On the contrary, In the last weeks of the year, prices accelerated their downward slide. The the world has not seen for a long time.
And finally: who is in 2018, the money scattered in the form of shares, bonds and raw materials, could not prevent the value of the portfolio fell deeper and deeper. Actually, a good Mix is to prevent the worst, but also government bonds and Gold rose in 2018, only minimal, Oil, and corporate bonds, even lost and could not make up for the debacle of the shares. Also within the shares of the major stock exchanges not, which compensated for the losses of the Dax and Dow Jones.
With caution and enjoy
One certainty remains, however: forecasts of the prospects of the stock markets and the economy are to be treated with caution. No one predicted the fall in the share price. The professionals, Fund managers and investment strategists, confirmed their dubious reputation, to predict almost every time for the next year, increasing courses beforehand. This is ultimately good for business. But we, the media as a whole, not expecting such a sharp fall.
Therefore, one should look closely, if the banks now expect for 2019, the end of the current equity correction and rising rates, when economists anticipate a slowdown in the economy, but not a recession. Economists have never said that the economic growth is, at best, the direction they meet more frequently. But perhaps more predictive power is asking too much.