Emmanuel Macron is accelerating his pension reform, even if it means going into force. Faced with a controversial reform that angered the unions and the population in general, the President of the Republic decided to continue to impose his vision. He indeed revealed “his desire to accelerate” the implementation of this reform this Monday, September 12 in a two-hour interview with the presidential press. It is already considering an implementation in the summer of 2023.
To achieve this, the Head of State has not ruled out introducing a measure to extend the retirement age or the contribution period in the social security financing bill (PLFSS) which must be debated. starting this fall. A proposal that already arouses the anger of many politicians on the left.
“We cannot pass this on the occasion of a small article in a social security financing bill. There is a great social debate behind it”, denounces the Communist deputy Pierre Dharréville. “This shows all the undemocratic drift of which this President is capable, who uses and abuses the cogs of the Fifth Republic: it is really monarchical abuse, it is totally unacceptable”, protested about this on franceinfo la MP LFI Danielle Simonet.
Going through the PLFSS, the Social Security financing bill for 2023, would prove to be quite irrelevant, as political scientist Raul Magni-Berton recently explained to Planet. “To carry out his reform, Emmanuel Macron has three options: either he knew how to have the blank check of Parliament, which is not the case today, or he wins a referendum, or he opts for the 49-3”, begins the teacher-researcher, who continues not without detailing the risks of this last option: “It’s all or nothing. If this does not work, the oppositions could very easily bring down the government and the executive could, in return, decide the dissolution of the National Assembly. Everyone potentially loses, even if the situation generally favors opposition”.
To justify his eagerness, Emmanuel Macron should rely on the annual report of the Council for Pensions Orientation (COR) to try to contradict the argument that the deficits after 2023 will disappear on their own.
Yellow vests, Covid-19 crisis, war in Ukraine: recent events have not given the government time to complete the pension reform. But the state will not be able to escape this thorny issue forever. The reflection should accelerate at the start of the school year, indicates La Dépêche, and there is no doubt that the debates will be tense.
The consultation “will begin after the meeting of the National Council for Refoundation, in September. We maintain the summer of 2023 as the horizon for the entry into force of the first effects of the reform”, declared Olivier Dussopt, the Minister of Labour, at the end of July.
The legal retirement age should once again be at the heart of the tensions as the positions diverge on this point within the National Assembly. The government should propose a gradual increase to age 65. Unions are also fiercely opposed to this extension of the legal retirement age. Sud and the CGT have already filed a strike notice for Thursday, September 29, 2022.
Force Ouvrière (FO) reacted to Elisabeth Borne’s general policy speech, Wednesday July 6, 2022, at the National Assembly. The Prime Minister assured that she wanted to “build new social progress”. Even if Elisabeth Borne wanted to be reassuring, explaining that the reform would be done in “consultation with the social partners”, FO reaffirmed “its total opposition to any decline in the legal retirement age and to the extension of the contribution period.
For its part, the French Confederation of Christian Workers (CFTC) says it is “rather in favor of a pension reform” but considers that the retirement age “is not a taboo”. At the microphone of BFM Business, Cyril Chabanier, the president of the union, estimated that before talking about the age of departure, it was first necessary to settle several questions, such as the employment of seniors, the age of cancellation of the discount or the hardship.
This reform “is not tied up”. This says a lot about the progress of the pension reform calendar. In her general policy speech to the General Assembly on July 6, Elisabeth Borne assured that the reform was certainly not yet “tied up”, but that it was not “take it or leave it” and “indispensable “. This is what the Prime Minister hammered home before ensuring an upcoming “consultation with the social partners, involving parliamentarians as early as possible”. For the Prime Minister, there are three main guidelines in this future reform: “to build new social progress”, to increase the minimum pension to 1,100 euros per month and “to get out of a situation where the same profession does not guarantee the same retirement. “Our social model is a paradox, both one of the most generous and where we work the shortest time”, justified Elisabeth Borne, who believes that this pension reform is essential “for the prosperity of our country and sustainability of our pay-as-you-go system”. “I interpret his remarks as the fact that there will be no reform initiated in the fall”, analyzes a union leader with Center Presse Aveyron.
Regarding the retirement age, initially set at 65 in 2030 by Emmanuel Macron, the Prime Minister did not mention anything. “If we have a compromise to say ‘we are going to shift the legal departure age less quickly, but we are going to ask for more quarters, for example’… We have to build responsible compromises”, assured the President of the Republic during from his July 14 interview.
The new Prime Minister has openly supported Emmanuel Macron’s plan to reform pensions. In an interview with the JDD, Elisabeth Borne indeed insisted on her wish to “not lie” to the French. According to the new occupant of Matignon, “those who would have people believe [that the pension reform] is not essential are not telling the truth to the French”. As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron proposed during the presidential campaign to “shift the legal age” of retirement “by 4 months a year” to bring it “in 2031 to 65 years”, with a device of “long careers” and another of “difficulty”.
Elisabeth Borne supports this project. “The President of the Republic has made clear commitments: no increase in taxes, no increase in debt. However, we are living longer and longer, the ratio between the number of active people and the number of retirees is decreasing… If we want to preserve the pay-as-you-go pension system, to which our fellow citizens are attached, we will gradually have to work a little longer”, conceded the head of government.
Retirement at 65 “is not a totem”, but according to Elisabth Borne, “we must ensure the financing of our social model”. But “announcing to the French that they will work less, brandishing retirement at 60, is lying to them”, she concludes.
Emmanuel Macron has not abandoned his pension reform project. According to information from Les Echos, the teams of the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State for Pensions, Laurent Pietraszewski, are working hard to find the best scenario to achieve implementation before the end of the five-year term of the head of the state. Among the avenues envisaged according to the economic newspaper, the adoption of one or more regulatory texts “before Christmas” would be sufficient to put an end to the special schemes and their early departures, and to establish the minimum pension at 1,000 euros for workers who have completed a full career at SMIC.
A new contributory minimum could also be established and introduced in the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS). Finally, a new pension reform could be drafted and presented to the Council of Ministers. The rights would be recorded in euros and no longer in points as initially planned. “The presidential election will have a referendum character on this project,” said the leader of La République En Marche, Stanislas Guerini.
However, this third scenario has little chance of being implemented. Indeed, if the government chooses to move towards a universal system, it will have to specify how it intends to manage the hardship and early departures for certain trades.
“There will be a pension reform. The question is not if, but when.” The tone had already been set by government spokesman Gabriel Attal in an interview given to Échos on June 30. On the question of the timetable for the reform, he explained that the reform would be done in “the fall or next year”. Despite the health crisis, Gabriel Attal believes that “the finding of the need to work longer is shared and that our ambition to save the pay-as-you-go system and to move towards more universality and equity is intact”. The minister nevertheless specifies that “there is no fixed timetable yet”. Despite the presidential election, there is no question of postponing or abandoning the pension reform. “Things are clear, there is no debate on the fact of continuing the reforms. We cannot put France on hold on the pretext that the presidential election is coming”, assures the government spokesperson.
Faced with fears, he believes he hears “the reservations of the social partners, but there is a political decision to be made, we will take it, in particular according to the epidemic and the extent of the recovery of the economy. who did not fail to make Laurent Berger react. “It will not pass like that, it is impossible”, he assured on franceinfo. After a year and a half of health crisis, the trade unionist does not imagine see the reform pass. “Who can imagine, when we are not quite out of the health crisis, that we still have a variant that hovers above our heads, while we are recovering from ‘a year and a half, of very deep fatigue, particularly in the world of work, and particularly for these second-line workers who would be very impacted by an increase in the retirement age, who can imagine that happening?
According to the political barometer Odoxa-Dentsu consulting for France Inter and the regional press, the possible return of the pension reform comes to weigh down the popularity of Emmanuel Macron. The Head of State has indeed fallen by 2 points to 39% below the 40% mark of positive judgments, against 61% of French people who believe that he is a bad head of government. After his speech on July 12, 65% of the French are unhappy to see the Head of State put the pension reform file back on the table. Conversely, more than 67% on average supported the main restrictive measures announced by the President of the Republic, in particular regarding the obligation to vaccinate caregivers or the extension of the health pass.
It had already been revealed that Emmanuel Macron was soon to speak on the future of pension reform. “The president wants to go quickly, with a speech before July 14”, confides a government source to the Parisian. According to information from the daily, the Head of State would hesitate to relaunch the reform, suspended because of the health crisis, now or to make an argument during the presidential campaign. In any case, the ministers concerned by the subject are not in the secret and some regret it. “I would like a government seminar to be organized to talk about it,” said one of them to Le Parisien.
For his part, faced with the record abstention observed at the regional level, according to an adviser to the executive, “Jean Castex believes that the French no longer have their minds in politics, that there is the euro, the reopening stores… So he wants to wait for the start of the school year, after August 23, for announcements to be made”. In the meantime, Olivier Blanchard and Jean Tirole submitted this Wednesday, June 23 to Emmanuel Macron their report “on the major economic challenges” which considers that there is an urgency to initiate the pension reform.
“France needs a pension reform” according to Bruno Le Maire. While France presented its recovery plan to the European Union in Brussels this Wednesday, April 28, the Minister of the Economy insisted on recalling on Monday that this reform was not a requirement of Europe, but a government will. “It is not the European Commission that is asking us for anything, that is the reasoning of Madame Le Pen who, to discredit the EU and the pension reform, says that it is a requirement from Brussels “, he assured on Europe 1 this Monday, April 26.
“It is not Brussels that is asking us for a pension reform, it is France that needs a pension reform so that its pay-as-you-go pension system is financially viable,” he insisted. If the French “national plan for recovery and resilience” is validated by Brussels, France will receive “about 10% of the amount owed to it, that is to say a little more than 5 billion euros at the start. september”. France must receive 40 billion euros in full, or 40% of its recovery plan of 100 billion euros which has begun to be deployed and therefore “30 billion euros have been disbursed”.
If Bruno Le Maire assures that pension reform is not a condition requested by Europe to receive this aid, the EU requires many commitments on long-requested reforms, such as the overhaul of the pension system. . This reform was recommended by the European Council in 2019 in its opinion on France’s stability programme.
Last December, he assured that the pension reform could be relaunched in 2021, as soon as “we have found the path to growth” and as soon as “we have found a more dynamic economy”. However, Elisabeth Borne was not of the same opinion then. In December 2020, she has already opposed the vision of the Minister of the Economy. According to the Minister of Labor “the absolute priority is to get out of the economic and social health crisis, to protect jobs”.
René-Paul Savary, Senator Les Républicains, may have set fire to the powder. On Saturday November 14, 2020, he tabled an amendment relating to the postponement of the legal retirement age from 62 to 63 as part of the examination of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), indicates Capital. This was then adopted in plenary. Something to delight the unions who had been refusing a budgetary reform for months already…
Concretely, specifies the monthly specialized in economy, the amendment provides for the postponement of the retirement age from 2025… only in the event of failure of the conference bringing together the social partners and the government, planned to allow the balance of intergenerational solidarity schemes.
That’s not all: the amendment also provides for the acceleration of the Touraine reform, voted during the previous term of office and aimed at gradually increasing the contribution period necessary to claim the age of the full rate. In short, another way to postpone the moment when active men and women put an end to their professional life. Except to accept the idea of a strong discount on his pension…
Unfortunately for René-Paul Savary, there is very little chance that this text will be maintained immediately: it may not pass the rereading planned for the National Assembly.
Is the pension reform buried? The executive recently announced the postponement of the unemployment insurance reform, reports L’Internaute, but did not say anything about the transformation of the intergenerational solidarity system as desired by Emmanuel Macron. Which doesn’t mean nothing is planned.
More important, no doubt: the Prime Minister received, this Monday, October 26, 2020, the unions and employers for a conference on social dialogue. And if it is not yet time “to update the subject of pensions”, it is likely that the subject has been discussed…
“The pension reform is a priority, we will simply have time to do all this in a few months when we will have made good progress on the economic and social crisis”, indicated Laurent Pietraszewski, the Secretary of State in charge of the file, interviewed by BFMTV at the beginning of October 2020. In front of our colleagues, he let it be known how much, after the crisis of the CoVid-19 coronavirus, the emergency was elsewhere.
We must, he assures us, not forget the “mother of reforms”. But realize that the urgency is elsewhere: he evokes the need to “promote employment” and “allow our 750,000 young people who leave the initial training system to return to employment”.
A few months to wait, at least. Something to delight those who do not wish to see the pension reform applied one day…
“Refusing to talk about pensions when the balance of accounts, and therefore the safeguard of the current system is compromised, would be irresponsible”. This declaration by Jean Castex before the Senate demonstrates his determination to carry out this reform, which is however so controversial. Dismissed during the health crisis, it is indeed returning to the front of the stage.
However, the unions do not seem ready for a resumption of negotiations. He judges that the executive should focus its efforts on resolving the economic crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, and on recovery.
The Prime Minister, who received the organizations, therefore intends to divide the subject into two parts: on the one hand the universal point-based pension system, and on the other the financing of pensions. “We are going to separate what is the future universal plan”, from the “shorter term subject”, or financing, “strongly impacted by the crisis”, he specified.
The meetings should also not resume before 2021. “The consultation on pensions has been postponed, the social partners have until the end of the year to discuss the modalities”, declared for his part on July 17 François Asselin, president of the CPME, after the conference on social dialogue, reports Boursorama.
However, this does not mean that the project is at a standstill. The head of government is indeed considering that the thorny subject of the regime’s deficit be raised and dealt with as early as September.
“We will not save a reform of our pension system, so that it is viable”, announced Emmanuel Macron during his television interview on July 14 broadcast live on TF1 and France 2. He admitted, however, that it “cannot be done as it was fitted before the Covid crisis”, he conceded.
And to add: “Retirement is the heritage of those who do not have one. To say ‘we act as if there were no problem’ is to say ‘I sacrifice the heritage of those who don’t.’ (…) We have to look our pension system in the face, like all of what we are doing.”
According to estimates published in mid-June by the Pensions Orientation Council (COR), the deficit of the pension system, estimated at 4 billion euros before the crisis, should finally come close to 30 billion euros this year. . This record level has therefore led the government to put the subject back at the center of the debate, despite protest from the unions.
If the President of the Republic deems it necessary to establish “relevant calendar”, he nevertheless specifies that “the priority for this summer, for the start of the next school year, is employment”. No one knows, however, if the “mother of reforms” will be adopted before the end of the five-year term.
The Head of State, however, differentiates the “systemic” reform (universal point-based pension system) from the “parametric” reform (the financial aspect) that the unions refuse to study at the present time.
According to Raymond Soubie, social adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy, who was part of the 2010 reform, it is necessary to “relaunch the bill by focusing it on the future, being firm on the objective and flexible on the methods. It can pass a text setting the general framework and give itself flexibility on the way to achieve it, by referring the subjects which annoy to consultations. As in golf, it sends the ball further “.
As the economist Philippe Crevel recently told us, “the new strategy could be done in stages. The single system will probably not be imposed on all the funds in 2024. This could be done more gradually. We could therefore imagine that employees would be the first to enter the universal scheme. The other professions, dependent on special schemes, would follow, little by little”.
This could also go through the return of the “grandfather clause”, which consists of only switching new entrants to the special schemes into the universal scheme.
However, Emmanuel Macron’s priority has changed: “He will focus on structural reform”, assured us Philippe Crevel. “It must try to move forward with the convergence of pension schemes and focus on the points that were not in conflict before the Covid-19 pandemic. I am thinking, for example, of reversion, but also of a certain number of measures in favor small pensions (implementation of a minimum contribution increased to 85% of the minimum wage). In short, social justice measures that could satisfy some of the French people”.
As confirmed by a minister in Le Figaro, “the social dimension of the text remains highly anticipated”: increase in pension rights from the first child, better consideration of hardship, salary increases for teachers…
Financial and equity issues, deemed difficult, will be postponed until later.
“Our reform is on hold, the Senate will not be able to examine it before September, we will support the bill”, soberly explains the rapporteur La République en Marche (LREM) of the pension reform bill, whose remarks are taken up by L’Internaute. He speaks, recalls the information site, of a text of law aimed at further protecting farmers and other agricultural operators past their cessation of activity, proposed by … the French Communist Party (PCF).
According to L’Internaute, it is above all a question of not throwing oil on the fire, after more than two months of intense disputes and the premises of a strong recession, caused by the health crisis of which Planet has already spoken at length.
In detail, therefore, it would be a question of allowing these French women and men to benefit from a minimum pension raised to 85% of the Smic, against only 75% currently. Which, according to the calculations of the PCF should allow some 289,000 retirees to earn a gain of 114 euros monthly. Something to make some people smile…
Contrary to what many thought, the controversial pension reform will not be completely buried. The bill, which had led to a large-scale strike last winter, could be, “in part”, relaunched. If during his speech on April 13, the President of the Republic assured that he wanted to build a new project, his entourage confided this Friday, June 5 to franceinfo that he nevertheless intends to continue “the spirit of the program” for which he considers to have was elected in 2017.
Emmanuel Macron does not want to “clean the slate”. This is also the reason why “he does not like the term act 3” and prefers to evoke a “new stage”. He wants to “continue the path, without a broken line”, “in the spirit of the program” detail his teams at the microphone of the radio.
Which points will then be discarded or maintained? Should we expect a new large-scale social movement? Some already seem ready to go back to the “fight”.
He couldn’t have had a better chance if he wanted to get rid of it. The pension reform will have withstood everything: the uncertainties of the executive, first, but also the anger of the street and the demonstrators as well as the strong strikes and the social crisis which largely shook the country before the pandemic. Covid-19 coronavirus, already widely mentioned by Planet. However, it would seem that it cannot last after this new crisis.
For Emmanuel Macron, this is an opportunity to come back to one of the reforms that earned him his incorrigible image as president of the rich. However, he intends to develop another narrative scheme, at the end of the epidemic.
“We have to get out of all this with a huge program, so as not to leave room for the populists”, asserts a “history of the movement” for whom this can only go through “the resumption of the fight against inequalities”, and the benching of the pension reform…
Since then, explains Economie Matin, the choice of the executive is clear: the government has just announced its “sine die” postponement. “And everything suggests that this suspension only precedes a first-class burial”, continue our colleagues.
Nothing, however, prevents the President of the Republic from subsequently considering a new pension reform. Which would probably mean starting from scratch, in terms of negotiations…
Even after its presentation by the government and the first work delivered by the deputies, the pension reform continues to arouse anxiety and apprehension. And for good reason ! As Capital indicates, the executive maintains the vagueness on several essential parameters. Including the level of pensions.
In practice, as Planet has already explained, the model for calculating pensions in the point scheme could be quite similar to that currently applied by Agirc-Arrco. But many questions remain. The value of the point, decisive for the level of remuneration from which future retirees will benefit, is one of them.
The latter actually depends on another value… currently unknown. This is the “activity income per capita”, which does not yet exist. The monthly even speaks of a “ghost” index, since in its impact study, the government prefers to use a value that is easier to understand, but not necessarily relevant for all assets today.
According to some economists, this earned income per capita is all the more worrying as it is not yet possible to know how it will evolve.
The government has been firm and, more than a month after the start of the strike against its pension reform, has not yielded on the merits. His bill is presented this Friday, January 24, 2020 in the Council of Ministers. It is also, for the executive, the opportunity to unveil its impact study annexed to the draft law, to which France Info returns.
This document, which goes into detail on the concrete applications of the pension reform, explains in particular the establishment of the “equilibrium age”, this other pivotal age which will take over after the entry into force of the new system, whatever the trade unions and employers’ organizations may decide.
This equilibrium age, projected at 65 in 2037 for French men and women born from 1975. The impact study speaks of a “purely conventional” age, which would correspond to the year starting “at the full rate for a person who began his professional activity at the age of 22 and having validated all his life 4 quarters per year, i.e. 43 years”.
L’Humanité (subscribed article) also mentions a potentially severe discount: each year not worked before the age of 65 would potentially cost 5% of the value of the point. Therefore, leaving at 62 would mean losing… 15% of your pension. Even worse ! According to Le Monde, the penalty could even rise to 7 or 8%.
Despite this balancing measure, the deficit should not be fully covered, continues France Info. On the contrary: between 2035 and 2040, it should be 0.2 or 0.3% against 0.5% without the reform. Similarly, the decline in pension spending brought about by the government’s plan is not particularly evident. Without carrying out the disputed reform, the budget associated with pensions should fall to 13.5% of GDP in 2040 (against 13.8% currently and 13.3% with the reform) then to 13% in 2050 (12, 9% following the government project).
In addition, the pension reform would push a fifth of taxpayers to leave later… by roughly “three years on average for generations born in the 1990s”, not without a “very significant pension gain, on average higher at 20%”.
Despite weeks and months of consultation, the pension reform continues to stir up disputes. This Thursday, December 5, 2019 also crystallized all the opposition: in the streets of France, there were hundreds of thousands of strikers, reports France Info, which covered the information live and counted at least 450,000 people. The CGT announces 1.5 million demonstrators spread over more than 250 rallies.
The RATP and the SNCF have also announced a renewal of the strike, until Monday, December 9, 2019, at least. A salutary initiative for the economist Frédéric Farah who signs for Planet a forum in support of the strikers. In the eyes of opponents of the movement, however, it makes little sense since the government had not yet taken the time to comment on the reform, as economist Philippe Crevel explains in our columns.
Originally the pension reform was to give rise to a bill unveiled in the year 2019. It was counting on electoral issues and the ongoing strike…Date and timetable of the pension reform
Entered the government on September 3, 2019, Jean-Paul Delevoye is High Commissioner for Pensions, delegate to Agnès Buzyn, the Minister of Health and Solidarity. Dean of the government of Édouard Philippe, as France Info recalls, he was previously high commissioner for pension reform. From his appointment in September 2017, he began to organize consultations with the social partners. From these consultations, which sometimes involved French men and women as a whole, a report was born. Soberly titled “Delevoye report”, it brings together all the recommendations of the former minister of Jacques Chirac.
First, the text recalls that the main problem of the current pension system is not funding. “Thanks to the efforts that have been made over the past twenty-five years, it is now close to financial balance,” said the High Commissioner. According to him, a finding also shared by Emmanuel Macron in his program, the concern comes above all from the mistrust that the old model potentially inspires in taxpayers. If it is necessary to reform the pension system, it is above all to restore “confidence in the pact between the generations”, explains Jean-Paul Delevoye.
The new model must therefore “preserve the framework to which the French are attached”, writes the minister. That is to say “that of a system in distribution, based on solidarity between generations, taking into account the careers of each”. While guaranteeing a sufficiently high level of pension, he continues. However, this therefore implies “rules common to all” whatever the status and “the end of special regimes”. “The universal system is based on a logic of equity: for an identical career, identical rights”, he insists.
“In order to no longer favor certain types of careers over others, each remuneration will be the subject of contributions which will make it possible to acquire points. All professional activities will therefore be taken into account, whatever the moment in life. active where they operate and regardless of the remuneration, even low, that they provide. It will therefore be more protective for people with bumpy or short careers”, continues the High Commissioner for whom this new system will be more rewarding all respects.
Concretely, sums up the daily Les Echos, Jean-Paul Delevoye is therefore considering the abolition of the 42 special schemes in favor of a universal scheme, the amount of the pensions of which would be calculated according to the number of points contributed. The value of the point has not been determined, but the High Commissioner is formal: it cannot go down, contrary to what François Fillon has already explained.
It is also a question of revising the minimum pension upwards, of offering more freedom in the choice of the retirement age (not without considering, however, a penalty in the event of cessation of activity occurring too early in the eyes of guarantors of the balance of the system), increases in the event of children or, among other things, a revision of the reversion system.
Originally, the Head of State was counting on a bill to be presented during the first half of 2019. However, in December of the same year, still nothing on the horizon. How to explain it? The causes are multiple. As Planet previously explained, the executive has repeatedly pushed back the deadline.
Retirement: Emmanuel Macron frightened by his own reform?
Emmanuel Macron has decided, once again, to postpone the pension reform. Indeed, the president fears some of its effects…
“A slight extension of the schedule would not be detrimental to the quality of this gigantic project”, explained the High Commissioner for Pension Reform Jean-Paul Delevoye, in October 2018 before obtaining a green light from the top of the State. . However, already at the time, other considerations could motivate the decision of the President of the Republic…
“The government does not want to pollute the campaign with a subject as explosive as pension reform, which could immediately result in the ballot box,” said a senior union official at the BFMTV microphone, shortly before the European elections.
“Emmanuel Macron is logically frightened. As would be any other president in his situation. Each pension reform is a particularly delicate reform to carry out”, judge for his part Raul Magni-Berton, political scientist and teacher-researcher at Sciences- Po Grenoble (IEP). “It’s quite normal. Touching pensions means touching the most available electorate in France. Retirees are, with us, those who vote the most. This is why their behavior and their possible reactions are scrutinized and taken into consideration before acting”, continues the political scientist.
Without necessarily questioning the relevance of this electoral strategy which, in the eyes of the teacher-researcher, is just to move the “flight of green wood” in time, it is clear that it was reused later.
In December 2018, underlines Europe 1, the government envisages a new postponement of the pension reform, which this time establishes the impossibility of seeing a bill emerge by the first half of 2019. Occurring after the strong popular protest of ” yellow vests”, this umpteenth dismissal is once again political, explains the general manager France of Kantar Public, Emmanuel Rivière.
“Retirement is undeniably a sensitive subject in France, in particular because there coexists in France a real sensitivity – which aims to preserve a horizon between the end of activity and the end of autonomy – and the idea that it the pension system will have to be reformed. Mechanically, it is therefore a subject which frightened many governments before that of Emmanuel Macron. In 2001, for example, Lionel Jospin finally decided to back down at the last moment so as not to risk lose voters in 2002. With the result that we know”, recalls the pollster. He points out the political risks that fall on any pension reform, not without judging that they are sometimes overestimated, going so far as to evoke “irrational fears”.
The date promised by Emmanuel Macron is quickly forgotten since, in August 2019, Gérald Darmanin – Minister of Action and Public Accounts – announces a new delay before the presentation of the bill. “We are going to take a year of consultation with society, with lawyers, nurses, teachers, all those who are concerned”, therefore declared the defector from the right at the microphone of RTL. “Every Frenchman must be interested in it, it’s a very complicated and important debate,” he continued.
Some editorialists see this as a setback imposed by the “yellow vests”. This is the case of Nathalie Saint-Criq for whom the government was already embarking on “an XXL demining operation”. “The state of exhaustion of the police after a year of “yellow vests” means that he considered it dangerous to turn back the French”, she notes again. She also mentions the electoral risks with the municipal and presidential elections approaching. “I bet you that we will be sold a reform otherwise to reform better”, she concludes.
Pension reform: this unexpected turnaround The consultations are far from over. This Friday, August 30, 2019, Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Action and Public Accounts announced disconcerting news.
In view of these long consultations, a vote before the municipal elections in March 2020 seems impossible. The debate in Parliament could thus take place in the spring or autumn of 2020.
In his speech of December 11, 2019, the Prime Minister returned in detail to the question. Finally, the bill should be presented to Parliament at the end of February, after being submitted to the Council of Ministers on January 22, 2020, reports RTL.
“The time of the universal system has come, that of the special regimes is coming to an end”, asserted Edouard Philippe, during his speech. He also took the opportunity to dwell on the timetable for the entry into force of the reform. Not all generations, he said, will be affected by the model change.
Concretely, affirmed the Prime Minister, it is the French men and women born in 1975 who will be the first concerned. Under the current system, they would have been 62 – the legal age for retirement – in 2037.
The first generation to know only the point system dates from 2004. These taxpayers will be 18 years old in 2022 and will therefore be subject to the reform as soon as they enter the labor market. One way, explains Capital, to make it irreversible.
However, certain aspects of the pension reform will not spare those who were born before 1975. According to Capital, which publishes another article on the question, the pivotal age decided by the government could also apply to future retirees who are in theory not affected by the rest of the reform. “Certainly, you will not integrate the universal plan expected for 2025, but you will not escape another measure planned before and intended to restore the balance of the pension system”, writes the specialized magazine, which addresses working people born in the 1960s.
For the rest of the pension reform, said Edouard Philippe, “the transition will be very gradual”. “All the part of the career carried out until 2025 will give rise to a retirement calculated on the old rules”, also declared the Prime Minister, specifying: “only the years worked from 2025 will be governed by the universal system”.
The pension reform defended by the government promises to fundamentally modify the calculation model which makes it possible to define the level of pensions. To better understand what should change, it is important to first review the rules currently in force. Until the entry into force of the new point system, various factors considerably influence the amount of the pension, recalls the site of the public service.
This is the case, for example, of the “average annual salary”. For private sector employees, it is “the average gross salary having given rise to contribution to the general scheme during the 25 most advantageous years” of the career. “All the elements of remuneration (base salary, bonuses, overtime) and daily maternity allowances are taken into account for the calculation”, specifies the site. Please note that the following periods are excluded:
Another essential parameter in the calculation: the pension rate. It is calculated on the basis of the “duration of old-age insurance for all basic schemes combined”, but also “any periods recognized as equivalent” and the effective retirement age. The rate may be increased or reduced depending on the time of cessation of activity.
The calculation formula which is described on the public service website is as follows: Average annual salary x Pension rate x (Duration of employee insurance under the general scheme/Reference duration to obtain a full-rate pension).
Before Édouard Philippe’s speech, the government had already expressed itself on the main principles of the new point-based retirement system. In an infographic published on the reforme-retraite.gouv.fr site, the executive already detailed the main lines. “Towards a simpler and fairer system for all”, wrote for example, the government teams who praised the interest of the reform. “One system for all”, therefore de facto leading to the abolition of the 42 regimes that existed until now to replace them with a “universal system”.
Like the old one, this one is supposed to remain “public by distribution”, assures the site. “Today’s assets will fund the pensions of today’s retirees,” it read. Because each euro contributed theoretically opens “the same rights for each French person”, this new model is presented as “more equitable”.
“The points accumulated throughout life will be recorded in a single account. Each day worked will be taken into account”, continues the site. For civil servants, whether civilian or military, bonuses will be taken into account in the calculation of the pension. This statement is reiterated for employees from special schemes. Self-employed workers will “benefit from an adapted contribution scheme”. “At equal contribution, they will have the same number of points”, assure the government teams.
This new system is also intended to be “more united”, in particular for the guarantees it is supposed to provide to women. “Points will be awarded for each child, starting with the first child,” the document promises. Other advantages put forward: the taking into account of interruptions of activity, the establishment of a minimum retirement scheme or the renewal of the survivor’s pension mechanism.
Another commitment, which should delight today’s inactive: contemporary pensioners of the reform will not be affected. More details in the infographic.
If the document promises an unchanged legal retirement age, the government does not hide its ambitions: this reform is also an opportunity to push French women and men to work more. At the microphone of France Inter, Thursday, December 12, Sibeth Ndiaye wanted to remind him. “There are no surprises in this extension of working life,” explained the government spokesperson.
In practice, future retirees can always leave at 62, recalls Marianne. However, this does not mean that they will benefit from the full pension to which they could have been entitled. It’s quite the opposite, in truth: with the establishment of the “equilibrium age” – new name given to the pivotal age -, leaving before 64 means suffering a penalty, a priori of 5% per year missing.
If Sibeth Ndiaye claims that the executive has always played fair, the subject has always been ambiguous, recalls the weekly. At first, Emmanuel Macron had insisted on his desire not to touch the legal age of cessation of activity. The president had even “campaigned” on this point, explains the newspaper.
For months, the subject has been the subject of back and forth. In 2017, then a candidate, the head of state assured that he would not change the starting age during his five-year term. “I will not move these parameters which are the level of retirement or age,” he said again. Later, it was Jean-Paul Delevoye who threatened to resign if the legal age was postponed, recalls RTL.
During the consultations, various red balloons were launched: a report from the Pensions Orientation Council (Cor), commissioned by Edouard Philippe, insists on the “need to work more” to restore the balance of the system by 2025 This is in order to implement the universal points system aimed at merging the 42 existing schemes. At this time, the executive is still hesitating between a pivotal age, set at 64 in 2025, with a discount mechanism, or conversely, a pension surcharge, and an extension of the contribution period. It was the first solution that was ultimately preferred.
For some economists, the subject of the retirement age is however a “false debate”. In any case, this is explained by Olivier Passet, director of economic research for the private research institute Xerfi.
“As the reforms progressed, the system was set up to ensure its long-term financial viability. Those who point out that this is not the priority issue today are right,” he said. “The latest projections, built on growth assumptions varying from 1% to 1.8% show that the share of pension expenditure will at worst stabilize, at best decrease by 2 points of GDP”, underlined in September 2019 the expert who also judges that “the financial viability of the system is within reach of relatively mild reforms”.
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“The law will provide for a golden rule so that the value of the point acquired cannot drop”, assured Edouard Philippe who wanted to reassure on the amount of pensions. For the time being, no one can say how much a point is really worth, which therefore makes any simulation difficult. However, the Prime Minister gave further details. He notably mentioned “an indexation not on prices, but on wages which, in our country, are increasing more quickly”.
In addition, the pension reform should bring with a “minimum pension of 1,000 euros net per month for a full career at Smic”, he also said. “The universal system will better protect the most vulnerable French people, who are in fact too often forgotten by the system”. The minimum pension, said Emmanuel Macron’s right-hand man, “will be guaranteed by law at 85% of the minimum wage over time and will evolve like this”.
Why, even in retirement, you have every interest in seeing the minimum wage increaseNo boost for the minimum wage next year. Bruno Le Maire could not have been clearer: he prefers to go through the activity bonus. However, an increase in the minimum wage could…
A speech that sticks enough to what Jean-Paul Delevoye already said in the past. In an exclusive interview granted to Ouest France and broadcast just a few hours before the announcement of the death of Jacques Chirac, the high commissioner had already returned to several of the questions which torment the French and the French. First and foremost, the remuneration of future retirees.
“The value of the point cannot fall, because it will be indexed to wages. Take the supplementary scheme for private sector employees (Agirc-Arrco): the point has never fallen”, he assured in the columns of the local newspaper . This does not mean, however, that the level of income of insured persons is necessarily set to rise. As Le Figaro indicated in 2017, the value of the point having not been revalued between 2013 and 2017, the French men and women saw their purchasing power drop for several years in a row.
Retirement: will pensions go down? Jean-Paul Delevoye responds Many retirees fear the reform brought by the executive: it may indeed hit them hard in the wallet. In any case, this is what filters through the press… And what…
Before these declarations, the Delevoye report already mentioned allowed a relative vision of the project. Many organizations such as the Social Protection Institute (IPS) have pointed out shortcomings or gray areas. The IPS denounces a “lower return than announced” due to the rate of return on contributions, which is lower than initially claimed by the executive.
“This system is presented as simple and readable, but the examples hide details that worry us a little. It smells like smoke,” quips the president of the Institute.
On the basis of the report signed by the high commissioner, Capital had also calculated the exact amount of the shortfall for French women and men affected by the pension reform. With the same contribution period, the vast majority of private sector employees will be hurt by the reform. To claim a standard of living comparable to that expected before the reform desired by the executive, it will therefore be necessary to work more…
In practice, the higher the level of income before retirement, the more the post-reform pension will be reduced. A mechanical consequence of the reduction in the contribution base implemented in the universal scheme of La République en Marche.
From the lowest level of income, the loss amounts to 122.69 euros monthly, calculates Capital. Except, of course, that the minimum income announced by the High Commissioner for Pension Reform is actually put in place. “This minimum is set at 85% of the Smic, or 1,000 euros for people who have worked all their life. So if this is the case, the new system may be more interesting. But it all depends on the conditions under which it will be granted”, warns Dominique Prévert of Optimaretraite, a firm of expertise in the matter contacted by the monthly specialized in economy.
For someone whose salary would correspond to 1.5 times the Smic – i.e. 27,381.90 euros annually, the shortfall is, on the other hand, 184.05 euros, according to the assumptions made by Jean’s report -Paul Delevoye. A manager, whose gross annual salary amounts to 40,524 euros, would lose 247 euros each month…
However, some people could benefit from the new regime. The government wanted to make women “the big winners” of the reform, at least in its communication. According to the specialized monthly, which is based once again on the Delevoye report, this is a scenario that can be credible, at least in the context of survivors’ pensions. More details in the dedicated section.
In detail, certain measures envisaged by the former minister of Jacques Chirac could be likely to benefit widows and widowers. It provides for example to increase the amount paid by the pension fund after the death of one of the two spouses. The idea is to allow the survivor to receive up to 70% of the couple’s income. In addition, reversion will be accessible from the age of 62, without any means test. A situation, all in all, rather attractive.
In practice, some widows and widowers will actually see their financial situation improve. This is the case, for example, of a woman receiving a lower pension than that of her companion, who died after the entry into force of the reform – unless she had liquidated her rights before.
In this example, taken by Capital, the widow receives 850 euros in pension against 2,000 for her spouse. Under the current scheme, she would be entitled to a survivor’s pension of 1,115 euros. After the reform, she can count on 30 euros more each month. Another case reports a couple receiving 4,500 euros in retirement (2,500 for the wife and 2,000 for the husband) where, once again, the most advantaged spouse dies first. Given the absence of a ceiling on resources in the new system, the widower will be able to count on 250 euros more monthly. In general, “the higher the income of the two, the more favorable the new system will be”, writes the press title.
Does this mean that this new model will benefit all widows and widowers in France? Not frankly. First, because all retirees whose income weighs more than 70% in those of the couple will lose compared to the current situation. But also because for some, like civil servants, the age of 62 actually corresponds to a step back, as Planet already explained. Moreover, past 2025, remarriages could quite simply cancel any right to reversion…
Retirement: why it is in your interest to lose your spouse… past 2025 The standard of living of certain future widows or widowers could be reduced. In question, the modification of the rules of attribution and calculation of survivors’ pensions.
“Responsibility is certainly working a little more, but it is also hearing the trade unions who ask us to protect those who cannot work more”, launched an Edouard Philippe who wanted to be reassuring, on December 11. He wanted, reports 20 minutes, to give guarantees to those concerned. He notably listed “using professions”, including nurses for example. These, he said, will be able to leave two years before the others. This is also the case for those who will have started working at the age of 20.
Currently, there are several reasons for hardship:
It is always possible, for tired workers, to consider an early departure before the entry into force of the reform. In this case, the quarter redemption may be relevant. “If you plan to leave within the next two years, do not wait any longer to ask yourself about the advisability of a buyout and, if necessary, send your request to your fund”, launches bluntly Dominique Prévert, specialist in the calculation of retirement pensions from the Optimaretraite firm, in the columns of Le Monde.
A solution that is not for all that possible for everyone: the current reform could make the process obsolete for all the generations directly impacted by the change.
The pay-as-you-go scheme, which should not disappear after the reform, consists of financing pensions through contributions from active workers, contemporaries of pensioners.
“This system is therefore based on strong solidarity between generations. Its financial balance depends on the ratio between the number of contributors and the number of retirees. The growth rates of income and of the active working population therefore constitute the two main factors of “, writes the site of public life.
“We must build social protection by taking better account of the new faces of precariousness”, underlined the Prime Minister, who spoke relatively little on the subject of disability or invalidity.
“The universal system will make it possible to better protect the most fragile French people”, he however insisted, not without explaining that the workers will be able to benefit from “solidarity points” which will be attributed to each “period of inactivity suffered”, whether it is unemployment, maternity, illness or disability, specifies L’Internaute.
“You were nearly 50,000 to participate and submit nearly 60,000 online contributions to the citizen consultation on pensions launched by the President of the Republic on October 4 and we thank you for it”, boasted the top -commissioner, Jean-Paul Delevoye, on the official platform aimed at collecting citizens’ opinions on the reform. On more than one occasion, he made a point of expressing his gratitude to the French men and women who took the trouble to express themselves on the government’s project.
It is on this site that you were invited to give your opinion. It also serves as a portal to speak directly to the former minister of Jacques Chirac. It also includes the recommendations of the High Commissioner, but also the many infographics produced by the government. This is where it is possible to download the documents in question.
Pension reform: it’s confirmed, you will soon be consulted Pension reform: it’s confirmed, you will soon be consulted “There will be a citizen consultation.” Here is what the Minister of Solidarity and Health, Agnès Buzyn, announced this Wednesday, August 21, on BFMTV and RMC. Details on your modes…
Edouard Philippe has promised to “sanctuarize” the level of teachers’ pensions. “We will include in the law the guarantee that the level of pensions will be sanctuarized and comparable to the level of pensions for functions or equivalent trades in the public service”, assured the Prime Minister who also undertook “before the end of the five-year term” to put in place “the necessary increases to maintain the level of pensions” for teachers.
“We will do it gradually and we will start in 2021”, he said again, not without specifying that the teachers “will not lose a euro in pension”.
He also spoke about the fate of hospital staff, and especially nursing auxiliaries. “I am very attentive to their situation. We all know what the hospital owes them. Almost two thirds will remain on the current regime. We will take the necessary measures for a transition that takes their work into account. We will put in place a time partial at the end of his career”, he said.
If the first generation affected by the reform is that born in 1975, some civil servants could benefit from the so much criticized grandfather clause. At the RATP and the SNCF, those who were born before 1985 will therefore be able to continue leaving at the age of 52.
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“I first want to confirm to our internal security forces that those who are exposed to dangerous functions within the framework of sovereign missions, such as firefighters, police officers, gendarmes, prison guards and of course the military, will retain the benefit of age exemptions”, also advanced the Prime Minister, recalls the Journal du Dimanche.
And he continues: “The gains represented by the bonuses of duration which exist in these schemes will be preserved in the future universal system, which will make it possible to maintain pension levels comparable to current pensions”.
Promises which, however, were not enough to convince the police unions. Many of them were annoyed with the reform, after the speech of the former mayor of Le Havre, denouncing a speech “full of inaccuracies” …
The Prime Minister also had a few sweet words with regard to lawyers and, in general, the liberal professions underlines Le Monde.
The latter, who feared a “hold-up” of their war chest, learned on Wednesday November 11 that “the reserves will remain in the coffers of the professionals concerned”. They can, however, be used to “accompany the transition” of these regimes to the future system, but there will be “no siphoning”, he promised.