(Ottawa) The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says the projected housing supply gap has narrowed slightly from last year, but Canada still needs to build about 3 .5 million more homes by 2030 than planned if it is to restore affordability.

The federal housing agency indicates, in updating its outlook, that the supply situation has improved somewhat in Ontario, but has deteriorated in other provinces such as Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia.

Overall, CMHC estimates that 3.45 million housing units are needed beyond current construction trends, compared to 3.52 million in its outlook from June of last year.

Ontario still accounts for most of the deficit with a gap of 1.48 million, but that is down from the 1.85 million projected last year.

Quebec needs about 860,000 more housing units than expected, an increase of 240,000 units from last year, and British Columbia needs 610,000, an increase 50,000 over one year. The gap in Alberta signals a need for 130,000 additional housing units, compared to 20,000 in the June 2022 projections.

The agency’s goal is based on the level of affordability in 2004, when housing costs were relatively low and the economy was stable.

CMHC explains that its affordability goal aims for an environment where housing would require about 30% of income in most provinces, but that goal is 37% in Ontario and 44% in British Columbia.