Our first instinct would be to believe that the Canadian has regressed compared to last year. At the quarter mark in 2022, Montreal was 11-9-1 for 23 points. The team is 9-10-2, for 20 points, after 21 games this season.
The data is nevertheless somewhat skewed by injuries. The players had not yet started to fill the infirmary at the quarter mark of the season last year. Mike Matheson obviously missed the first 17 games of the season. Otherwise, only Jonathan Drouin and Joel Armia, two more marginal attackers, were missing after around twenty matches.
Sean Monahan fell in action in the 21st game. David Savard, Brendan Gallagher and Mike Matheson, again, would follow in December.
These losses led to an ugly streak of just one win in eleven games between December 14 and January 5. There were two more difficult stretches over the winter, with a sports therapist on the verge of burnout: just one win in ten games between February 25 and March 18 and one win in ten games to end the season between March 28 and April 13.
This season, the loss of Kirby Dach in the second meeting hurt. His end of the previous season, 15 points in 21 games, playing time often exceeding 22 minutes per game, was not an illusion. Dach had a strong training camp and suffered no complexes compared to Nick Suzuki.
CH was 3-1-1 when David Savard, the club’s second defender, fractured his hand. The math is pretty simple: Montreal is 6-9-1 since his absence. Kaiden Guhle also had to miss four games during this sequence.
Christian Dvorak returned to the game in the tenth game. Without being transcendent offensively, he brings certain stability to the second line, between Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield.
Jordan Harris and Arber Xhekaj have suffered injuries in their turn recently. The Canadian is therefore missing three regular defenders. The third pair is made up of two players recalled from the Laval Rocket, Gustav Lindström and Jayden Struble.
Johnathan Kovacevic is called upon to play a little too often in a second pair and Justin Barron, removed from the lineup at the start of the season, now finds himself propelled into the first pair. He even played 25 minutes in San Jose, his fifth straight game over 20 minutes.
Under the circumstances, Martin St-Louis’ team is not doing too badly. But the Canadian remains a team in its second year of reconstruction for which expectations, even from management, are modest.
That he displays a higher winning rate than the Senators and remains only three points from the last place giving access to the playoffs is even surprising.
But let’s not bury our heads in the sand either. Progress remains modest. Despite his 17 points in 21 games, Caufield is only a shadow of the forward who scored 26 goals, including 19 tied, in 46 games last year.
A little too often on the periphery, less able to find free space at five against five, he scored four of his six goals in overtime or on the numerical advantage. The majority of his eleven passes are not primaries.
At 24, Nick Suzuki remains a similar center to recent years, which is nothing to sneeze at, but has he reached his ceiling? Mike Matheson is still producing at an impressive rate. His 15 points in 21 games put him in the top 20 in scoring among NHL defensemen, but he’s much more vulnerable defensively than last year.
Obtained for the 31st and 37th overall picks in 2023, Alex Newhook ranks fourth in scoring among the team’s forwards with 12 points in 21 games. He now seems destined for the wing. At 22, he will still have to prove whether he will become a top-tier or complementary striker. Josh Anderson? We’re running out of explanations to justify his two assists in 21 games. Hasn’t he already scored 27 goals in the National League?
Among the more positive aspects, note the performance of Kaiden Guhle, at only 21 years old. This boy has the makings of a number one defender. His size, his robustness, his mobility and his sense of anticipation allow him to face the best opposing trios. He had seven points in 17 games without ever participating on the power play. He excels in transition play. You may be looking at the most important player of the next few years.
Juraj Slafkovsky, 19, has shown marked improvement over the past few games. Much more involved, much better in his puck recoveries along the boards, better decisions in possession of the rubber piece and four points in his last six games. Only Alex Newhook has amassed more, five. Imagine Slafkovsky, at 6-foot-4, 240 pounds, in the playoffs in a few years, at 23, 24…
Samuel Montembeault, the next starter, Wednesday in Columbus, slowly but surely solidifies his number one status. He has allowed three goals or fewer in six of his nine starts. His goals against average of 2.81 per game is significantly higher than last year, at 3.42. He also increased his save percentage from .901 to .908. A new contract soon?
What a difficult statement to interpret from Senators head coach D.J. Smith following another Ottawa loss, 5-0, Monday night at the hands of the Florida Panthers. Confession of impotence?
The Senators began their rebuild in 2018. Smith has been on the job since 2019. General manager Pierre Dorion, fired in recent weeks, was hoping for results starting in the 2021-22 season. But Ottawa hasn’t moved above 11th in the Eastern Conference since 2017.
Even though their young core is aging, the Senators still languish in last place in the Atlantic Division with an 8-9 record. Without having drafted in the first round since 2021 and losing a first choice in the next three vintages.