At the rate things are going with the recovery in the airline industry, Montréal-Trudeau will find itself cramped more quickly than expected “airside”, a “wall towards which we go straight”, suggests a new book written by professor and transport specialist Jacques Roy.
This is one of the findings of The Mirabel and Dorval Airports Saga: Lessons to be Learned Now and for the Future. This scenario, if it materializes, will accentuate the headaches of Aéroports de Montréal (ADM), lagging behind in its major infrastructure projects after having seen its finances weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“One thing is certain, the wall exists and we will have to face it, writes Mr. Roy, professor of operations and logistics management at HEC Montreal. What we do not know exactly is when we will reach it. »
From the construction of Mirabel airport to its decline and the repatriation of flights to Dorval, renamed Montréal-Trudeau in 2004, through the future of airports, the book casts a wide net through seven chapters, where we revisit the past in addition to looking forward.
A quarter of a century after this transfer of international flights from Mirabel to Dorval, the repercussions are still being felt and are there for good, explains the professor, in an interview with La Presse.
Space is already lacking at peak times in the terminal, but other clouds are looming on the horizon. According to Mr. Roy, the “ultimate capacity” of runways of 310,000 movements – one landing or one takeoff – per year could be reached as early as 2047, two decades before the projections mentioned in 2018 by ADM.
“I think we will reach this limit of having more and more seats on planes, explains Mr. Roy. At some point, there cannot be growth without more planes. »
In its most recent master plan, which extends until 2033, the non-profit organization is counting on an annual growth of 1% of movements. The expert considers this rate to be “low” when comparing the North American averages from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which range between 2.5 and 3%.
Nevertheless, important decisions await Yves Beauchamp, who will take over the helm of ADM on September 5. In the 1980s, Ottawa transformed airports into NPOs, which must pay for the occupation and use of federal lands. In Montreal, the lease expires in 2072. Thereafter, the airport must be handed over to the federal government without any debt.
It is therefore necessary to plan important investments in order to be able to amortise them. Easier said than done coming out of a health crisis.
“It means that 20 years before, you have to stop spending and pay off the debts, explains Mr. Roy. What are you doing during this time? Minimal refitting and maintenance. Somehow it doesn’t work. »
In an email, ADM claims to have capacity on its two runways “for many more years”, adding that the next forecasts will come in the master plan 2023-2043, which should be filed with the federal Minister of Transport “at the end of the year”. end of 2024″.
The current situation, however, offers an opportunity according to the expert, who believes that the lifeline of Montreal-Trudeau does not go through its privatization or the arrival of private investors such as pension plan managers. He proposes a renegotiation of the terms of the lease between ADM and Ottawa.
For example, the lease could be extended. For its part, the rent would be capped at the current level, indexed to inflation rather than on the basis of gross income. In return, the airport authority would have to make concessions in terms of governance. It is inspired by the Australian model, where an oversight body ensures that decisions made by airport managers protect “the interests of the public”.
“Our current model gives leaders far too much leeway,” says Roy. A small oversight committee would require managers to appear before a group to explain their decisions. For the general public, this would provide more transparency. »
An example: between 1997 and 2021, the “Airport Improvement Fee”, which is built into the price of an airline ticket, increased from $10 to $35 at Montreal-Trudeau. With a monitoring committee, ADM would not have the latitude to unilaterally decree an increase, explains Mr. Roy. It should be justified.