Regional GDP growth: 1.4% (2.9% in 2023 and 9.8% in 2022)

Disposable income per capita: 3.3% (4.1% in 2023 and 9% in 2022)

Number of jobs: -0.6% (1.8% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2022)

Unemployment rate: 7.3% (5.8% in 2023 and 5.7% in 2022)

Residential starts: 6,744 (6,500 in 2023 and 10,436 in 2022)

According to Desjardins, the “increasingly pronounced” economic slowdown is slowing employment growth in Montreal, and could even tip it into a “slight decline” in 2024. “The great diversification of the Montreal labor market should, however, reduce the effects of the economic slowdown in the region”, anticipate Desjardins economists. However, after experiencing a historic low of 5.7% in 2022, the unemployment rate in Montreal is expected to increase to 5.8% for the whole of 2023, and even higher in 2024 to exceed the 7 mark. %.

According to Desjardins, the trade and manufacturing sectors “could experience more difficult months as indicated by the drop in activity at the Port of Montreal.” However, “the aeronautical sector should support the manufacturing industry, while Montreal is recognized worldwide as a center of the aerospace industry.” In building construction, already slowing down since the start of 2023, the decline in hours worked could become more pronounced with the drop in activities in all sectors: residential, commercial and institutional. In the health care and social services sector, Desjardins anticipates that “demand for labor should continue to increase, driven by the aging of the population and increased needs for social services.”

With the marked drop in residential construction starts, while demand for housing in Montreal remains very strong with “the resumption of immigration and the return of foreign students”, Desjardins economists anticipate that “the downward trend [ of the rental vacancy rate] is expected to continue through 2024.” And this, below its level already lowered from 3.1% to only 2.3% over the past year. In the residential property resale market, Desjardins anticipates that the 38% drop in transactions since the start of the year in Montreal could ease over the coming months. Consequently, the impact of this slowdown on sales prices is still expected to be “limited” in the short term.

Good news to mitigate the economic slowdown in the Montreal region: “Strong growth in [non-residential] investments is expected in both the private and public sectors, thanks to the arrival or continuation of numerous infrastructure projects », note the economists at Desjardins. Among these major projects, they highlight the extension of the blue metro line (6.4 billion between 2020 and 2029), the construction of the Réseau express métropolitain (REM, 8 billion between 2018 and 2027), the repair of the Louis-Hippolyte tunnel ‑La Fontaine (2.5 billion from 2022 to 2025) as well as the reconstruction of the Île‑aux‑Tourtes bridge on the A40 at the western end of the island of Montreal (2.3 billion from 2023 to 2027).