investment Bank Goldman Sachs sees in the financial markets is currently “too much pessimism priced in”. Economists and analysts of the Bank issued on Tuesday in front of investors at the annual “Global Strategy Conference” in Frankfurt a cautiously optimistic Outlook for the year.
Christian Siedenbiedel
editor in the economy.
F. A. Z.
chief economist Jan Hatzius predicted that the global economic growth from cool, from 3.8 per cent in the past two years to an expected 3.5 percent in the current year. He was expecting but at least 2019 is no recession in the United States, even if indicators such as the yield curve, an increase in the recession pointed to risks. All of the classic reasons why it will come to recessions, not to recognize that there is no Overheating of the economy, no banking or financial crisis, no oil shock and no financial imbalances, such as excessive spending of the private sector as a result of a loose monetary policy and lax lending.
“see nothing,” said Hatzius. Goldman has its forecasts for the interest rate of the American Central Bank, the Fed increases back – from four to two. In the past few months, the wages were increased more, the Inflation did temporarily amount to significantly more than 2 percent, and at last they fell back to 1.9 percent. “That will remain in the next months, in the course of the year 2019, and in 2020, however, we will see a rise in Inflation. “
other than in the Moment, the financial markets priced in, reckons Goldman for the European Central Bank’s first interest-rate increase this year. Goldman Economist Jan Stehn said: “the end of 2019, there will be a small interest rate, 20 basis points, then six months break, then another 20 basis points.” Previously, in March, launched a further round of long-term loans from the ECB to banks TLTRO (“Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations”), in order for lending in Italy is deteriorating. In Europe, too, wages were increased more. The core inflation, i.e. Inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices, will remain the next months, at 1 per cent, the end of the year but wear.