“The next few quarters are going to be difficult” for the Quebec economy, warn economists from Desjardins Group, despite the publication on Tuesday of slightly better than expected GDP results for the first months of the year.

In fact, real GDP growth in Quebec only “slowed down slightly” in the first quarter of 2023, Desjardins economists note. It was measured at 1.7% annualized, compared to 1.9% in the last quarter of 2022.

“This is a significantly weaker result than the 3.1% obtained in Canada in the first quarter,” notes Hélène Bégin, senior economist at Desjardins.

And for the future, she anticipates that “consumer spending (still growing in Quebec in the first quarter) will not be able to maintain this pace for long”, and that “the context is darkening for businesses”, particularly in the sectors of residential construction and the export of goods and services.

In addition, Ms. Bégin points out, “several major disruptions that occurred this spring, such as power outages and ongoing forest fires, are having a negative impact on the affected population and also on economic activity. »

Therefore, anticipates the senior economist at Desjardins, “the 1.7% real GDP growth observed in the first quarter could be the last breath [of the Quebec economy] before more negative results”