Drought, heat, bad weather… What does the summer of 2023 have in store for us? This year, the Palm Sunday wind, which took place on Sunday April 2, was oriented north. In a previous article, Patrick Marlière, meteorologist for Agate Météo, explained to Planet that this foreshadowed a similar season in the summer of 2020, “with less frequent and shorter heat wave episodes than in 2022 (…) We can fear major hailstorms when temperatures rise”.

If Palm Sunday is the saying, it turns out that it is true to almost 70%… And is in line with the seasonal forecasts for the beginning of summer 2023. According to La Chaîne Météo, the dominant scenario for the months of May, June and July is that of a hot trend, accompanied by a rainfall deficit and a stormy development. Details.

In May, do what you like ! The seasonal model of the site specializing in meteorology predicts a hot and summery month, accompanied by rainfall deficits throughout the territory, at a rate of -15%. “A few storms could develop on the reliefs, in particular on the Pyrenees, as well as from the southwest to the northeast, but without bringing homogeneous accumulations”, specifies the forecaster.

Temperatures are expected to be 1.5 to 2°C higher than seasonal averages. “The reliability of this evolution is average, because the persistence of this dry weather is not seen unanimously by all the models that we analyze”, specifies however La Chaîne Météo.

What are the trends expected in June?

For the first month of the meteorological summer, all the seasonal numerical models seem to agree for global heat as well as temperatures 1.5°C higher than the seasonal averages.

“Precipitation could be quite close to normal, but in stormy form, so it would be quite heterogeneous. Some regions will be in deficit, in particular from the south-east to the Rhône valley and the plain of Alsace”, specifies La Chaîne Météo. The thunderstorms are expected to strike primarily in the west and southwest, with some upwelling in the northeast.

What are the trends expected in July?

For now, seasonal forecasts suggest that the northern high pressures will persist into July. “Conversely, relative low pressure will persist off Portugal, which could cause stormy upwellings as well as ‘heat feathers'”, indicates La Chaîne Météo. According to the forecaster, the first month of the summer holidays should be warm, with values ​​above the seasonal averages at a rate of 1.5°C.

Note: at this time, the reliability of the forecasts remains low. The trends will have to be confirmed in the coming weeks.