A winter as warm as autumn? October broke temperature records, with days that looked like summer and allowed the French not to turn on their heating. Indeed, at the time of energy sobriety, some feared the sudden drop in temperatures in their homes. If we have escaped the cold for now, what can we expect for the next few weeks?

Météo France has just unveiled its first forecasts for the start of winter. In its publication, the organization writes: “The most likely scenario for the quarter November-December 2022 – January 2023 is the predominance of anticyclonic conditions, with calm and dry weather, on the European continent. The disturbances will tend to be rejected further north in Europe or in the south-west of the Mediterranean”. There is therefore a 50% chance that the temperatures will be similar to the seasonal averages. There is a 20% chance that the winter will be colder than normal and therefore a 30% chance that it will be warmer. The month of November could therefore be similar to October in terms of temperatures.

If the question of temperatures is particularly important this year, it is because the government has asked the French to make efforts on their energy consumption. The 19°C rule must be applied as much as possible, the heating must be turned off in rooms that are not used and when you leave your home. Common sense advice, but which sometimes changes the habits put in place by many French people… Which has reason to worry the government. The colder it gets, the warmer we will get and the more we will energize an already struggling network.

According to these first forecasts from Météo France, the worst-case scenario – that of an electrical blackout – is not the most likely. Be careful not to declare victory too quickly according to meteorologist Pierre Bonin, who reminds Ouest-France that “three months is a long time” and “a lot of things can happen”. We are therefore not immune to a surprise cold snap in the coming weeks, with consequences for the electricity network. Moreover, in these 30 departments, the mercury had fallen very low in 2021, down to -17°C…