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Covid-19: an inevitable new wave this fall?

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Soon the return of Covid-19? With the end of the state of emergency on July 31, 2022, the scientific council, under the direction of Jean-François Delfraissy, was dissolved. However, it is not that the threat has disappeared. On the contrary, “The Covid epidemic is not behind us” commented Brigitte Autran, the president of the new body created by the government, in the columns of Parisian.

The professor of immunology and vaccine expert was, in fact, appointed on Wednesday August 17, 2022 to head the Committee for monitoring and anticipating all health risks.

Its objective remains the same as that of the scientific council: “to guide the actions of the government on scientific bases”. With the difference that it is not established during crises but conversely, as its name suggests, it will carry out a permanent watch on health risks in France. “Today, you have to go to live with it,” she says.

An instance desired to be sustainable by the Minister of Health François Braun, who sees it as “A commando, agile, and reactive”. A major project for the first intern in France confronted with AIDS in 1981, which will have to make this instrument operational from the next school year.

Because if the rates of people infected with Covid-19 are particularly low at the moment, indicates BFMTV, for the expert, “The most likely scenario is that of an epidemic peak at the start of the school year”.

Indeed, currently, the rates of hospitalizations and critical care are down (-28%) and (-26%) but in all likelihood, “it is almost certain that there will be a wave in the fall “ she reported to the Parisian.

For the professor, this next epidemic peak will be due either to a new variant, or to the return of the cold. “We are not soothsayers,” she explained to the media, to avoid this resurgence of cases, “there are still levers to activate. Unfortunately, there are still too many unvaccinated or unvaccinated people.”

According to Covid Tracker data, at least 79.6% of French people have received all the required doses. Nevertheless, in order for the entire eligible population, i.e. those over the age of 12, to be vaccinated, the campaign should continue “until October 11, 2039”.

When it comes to monkeypox, the director is clear: “A zero Monkeypox strategy is possible, unlike that of zero Covid”. If, however, the 250,000 people targeted in France are vaccinated… But for the moment, this figure is only 35,000. Achieving total immunity requires establishing an absolute priority for protection against this virus.

Chikungunya, H1N1, Ebola… the viruses have been multiplying for fifteen years. “The main thing is then to be reactive. This will be our role: to help build the elements of immediate response on solid scientific bases”, assured Brigitte Autran to the newspaper.

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