43.2°C in Belin-Béliet, 42.9°C in Biarritz, 41.3°C in Saumur… The month of June that has just passed has broken many weather records. Heat, first, with the earliest heat wave ever recorded since 1947, but also thunderstorms, being the month with the most lightning since records began in 1989. According to figures from La Chaîne Météo, the first month summer showed a temperature 2.8°C higher than normal as well as an excess of sunshine of around 10%.

And summer still has surprises in store for us! Régis Crépet, historical meteorologist for the specialized site, enlightened us on the heat wave which is about to overwhelm the country next week. According to the specialist, this situation, which could eventually lead to a heat wave, is here to stay. Details.

“Summer is not over. Even if we still manage to escape it, let’s imagine that the heat wave is not yet too strong around the 20th. There is still the week after. We are really under the direct threat of these heat waves, which was not the case last summer, when the weather was much more in line with the climate and the weather in France. There, we find ourselves with the configuration of a summer Spanish”, explains Régis Crépet.

Before continuing: “At the same time, there is no rain in forecast. So the drought will increase (…) it is dangerous for the vegetation, because it increases the risk of fires of forest especially in the south”, he laments. In addition, the specialist also expresses his concerns about the regions north of the Loire: “if it does not rain there in July, it is not normal either”.

Are heat waves of such intensity and duration normal in France? Are they exceptional, or are they, on the contrary, seasonal?

These high temperatures have the particularity of being both exceptional and seasonal. “By definition, they are not going to happen in January. A heat wave in July or August is normal. But here, the temperatures are well above seasonal averages for France”, notes Regis Crepet.

In short, heat waves should not be as hot, nor last as long on French territory. Summer temperatures are getting closer and closer to those that can be found in Spain, without it being hotter across the Pyrenees.

Should we get used to this type of configuration?

“It’s to be seen, but we may have to start getting used to a Spanish climate, with warmer summers as has been the case since 2015. We have really taken a step forward, with warmer and drier seasons than before,” says the historical meteorologist.

Although the 2003 heat wave remains the strongest ever recorded in France, the same patterns have been repeated in recent years. “Since 2015, we have noticed the recurrence, the frequency of these heat waves, even if we notice from time to time summers which are a little more stable than the others, as was the case last summer”, continues Régis Crépet.

The summer of 2021, which had been considered gloomy by many holidaymakers, actually corresponded much more to the climatic conditions of France than the hot and dry summer that awaits us… And those that will follow.