(Paris) Global oil demand will increase by 2.3 million barrels per day on average in 2023, OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday, confirming its forecast of the previous month.
The group of oil-exporting countries anticipates that most of the growth in oil demand will come from non-OECD countries and especially from Asia-Pacific where it should increase by 2.1 million barrels per year. day (mb/d) this year, compared to 0.2 million in the OECD.
Total oil demand is expected to average 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023, a record high.
Demand in the Americas and Europe is however revised slightly downwards in the first and second quarters, due to uncertain economic prospects.
“Although the growth momentum is expected to continue in 2023, the economy will continue to navigate through challenges” including high inflation, likely “further rate hikes”, high debt and “geopolitical uncertainties” , analyzes OPEC.
“Demand in non-OECD countries is revised higher due to improving economic activity in China,” according to OPEC. The demand is supported by the thirst for kerosene and gasoline in this country which is restarting its economic activity “after the abandonment of the zero COVID-19 policy”.
For 2023, non-OPEC liquids production growth remains unchanged from last month and is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d, driven by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Russia. Guyana.
With the sanctions targeting Russian oil, US oil is indeed highly coveted: according to preliminary data cited by OPEC, US crude exports hit a record high of 4.3 mb/d in February.
“Nevertheless, great uncertainties remain about the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments, as well as the potential for US shale production in 2023,” OPEC said.
Crude production in the 13 OPEC nations rose 117,000 barrels per day in February from the previous month to 28.92 million per day.