A recent bipartisan poll conducted in Wisconsin after the presidential debate on June 27 revealed that former President Donald J. Trump is leading President Biden by five percentage points in the swing state. Trump has the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Biden trails behind at 45 percent. The gap widens to six percentage points when third-party candidates are included in the ballot, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 9 percent of the state’s support.

Interestingly, Biden is also lagging behind Democratic incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin, who is enjoying the backing of 50 percent of likely voters in her race against Republican challenger Eric Hovde. The poll, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP, highlighted Biden’s struggle to appeal to older voters in Wisconsin. Among voters aged 50 and above, Trump leads Biden by a significant seven percentage points.

The survey further revealed Biden’s weakness among younger voters, with the former President Trump holding a narrow lead of just one percentage point among voters under 50. In contrast, Senator Baldwin is winning this demographic group by a substantial margin of 14 percentage points. Trump’s strong performance in the state can be attributed to his ability to solidify Republican support, as he is currently winning 93 percent of Republican voters in a multi-candidate field, while Biden is only able to secure 86 percent of Democratic support.

The positive views of Trump’s time in office are also playing a significant role in boosting his candidacy, with over half of Wisconsin voters strongly approving of his presidency compared to 39 percent who hold a strong approval of Biden’s job performance. Additionally, the majority of voters across various demographic groups believe that Trump emerged as the winner of the recent debate. Swing voters over the age of 50, a key focus of the poll, overwhelmingly felt that Trump outperformed Biden in the debate.

Ruth Igielnik, a Times polling editor responsible for conducting, analyzing, and reporting on polls, provides valuable insights into the survey results. As the election in Wisconsin continues to unfold, these poll findings shed light on the shifting dynamics and voter preferences in the state. With Trump leading in key demographic groups and benefiting from positive perceptions of his previous term, the race for the presidency in Wisconsin remains highly competitive and closely watched.