Weather: should we expect a very cold winter?

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Winter is fast approaching, and if the weather lately has given us a bit of autumnal sweetness, the arrival of the cold is not that far off in the calendar.

In the midst of the energy crisis, the French are already worried about shivering until March, and it is even said that the 2022-2023 season could be the coldest “for 10 years”. “Alarmist” forecasts according to Paul Marquis of e-Weather Service, “like every year for 40 years”. But then, what to really expect this winter?

Against all expectations, it should be rather mild on average, even if a “first real cold snap arrives in December, with possibly snow as far as the plain”, notes for his part Patrick Marlière, forecaster at Agate Météo.

The month should also be placed under the sign of rains, locally. “The scenario that is emerging, reports Paul Marquis, are low pressures on the Mediterranean rim, with heavier rains in this sector. But elsewhere, the weather will not necessarily be rainy, which is worrying, because the drought is not expected to improve”.

On the temperature side, if the mercury should start to drop seriously in December, the country should remain within the seasonal averages, “even a little below”, specifies the specialist.

Paul Marquis does not exclude, however, “ripples or cold snaps, lasting 3 to 4 days, but we are not heading for an extremely cold winter”. On average, according to the forecaster, the season should be quite mild, with “over three months of winter, between 0.5 and 1°C compared to seasonal norms at the national level”.

It is in December and January that France should experience the coolest temperatures this winter, according to forecasts from e-Weather Service.

Patrick Marlière at Agate Météo makes another observation:

For the forecaster, “this winter will certainly be a little colder than normal… It remains to monitor the drought….”.

The forecasts, at this stage, however, remain uncertain and are likely to change in the weeks to come.