Weather: a storm this weekend? The two possible scenarios for Sunday

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Freezing cold in almost all of mainland France around mid-December, then summer temperatures in the last week of the year with thermometers reaching 18 degrees in Marseille… The weather was particularly erratic in the Hexagon since the beginning of winter. A new scenario presents itself for this weekend, the probability of a major storm in the North-West with gusts of wind reaching 130km/h. What areas will be affected and what are the different scenarios envisaged?

If we believe in the worst of the scenarios envisaged, we could expect gusts of 100 to 130 km / h from Brittany to Pas-de-Calais and 80 to 100 km / h from Gironde to the North -East, according to Guillaume Séchet, weather specialist for BFMTV. In his article on the Météo-Villes site, he recalls that “we speak of a storm when the depression generates gusts greater than 90km/h”. These depressions are areas of low atmospheric pressure and often associated with winds and heavy precipitation.

Guillaume Séchet nevertheless specifies that these Atlantic storms only last a few hours at the same point. Thus, he adds: “the presence of a low pressure system this weekend over the British Isles could lead to the deepening of a low pressure system which could cause strong gusts of wind within the northern half during the day on Saturday. and Sunday…

In addition, the ocean current “should accelerate over the weekend and in particular during the day on Sunday January 8, 2023”. This worst-case scenario is possible but still uncertain. One thing is certain: the good weather will not be there this weekend in the North.

The hypothesis of a strong storm remains unresolved and is therefore not yet confirmed. According to BFMTV, “there are still many differences on the location and intensity of this depression”. It “could widen further, the winds would be even stronger, on the other hand it could also perhaps be filled in”. What does the most conservative scenario look like? What gusts of wind can we expect?

In a less catastrophic and much more cautious scenario, we expect “gusts reaching only 50 to 70 km / h over a good half of northern France and 70 to 90 km / h in the Channel”, so “no windy event particular”, explains Guillaume Séchet.

He added: “For the time being, the chances of seeing a storm hit France this Sunday therefore seem relatively limited. However, it will be important to follow the next updates to confirm or refute this threat”.