Trading week: The tale of the Christmas rally


    There are stories told every year. The stock market has sometimes more than is good for you. Among these popular stories, the Christmas rally. Just as Santa brings the gifts, so to bring the Christmas rally again gains the end of the year. The Problem is only a little: So, as unfortunately, there is no Santa Claus, there is a Christmas rally. But in every fairy tale there should be also the famous truth – is that the case here?

    Franz Nestler

    editor in the economy.

    F. A. Z. Twitter

    a Christmas rally refers to a classic way of price increases in December. The common stockbrokers invents but rather terms that make it sound snappy and, of course, sell better. In this years you can’t talk of a Christmas rally definitely. This week alone, the F. A. has lost z-Index 2.3% to 2047 points. The German Dax index gave up 2.2 percent to 10.631 points. In December, there were even been around 5 percent. There are just two more trading days for the Dax this year: The 27. and the 28. December. Even the wildest optimists do not believe that the catching up of the Index. As Craig Erlam, market analyst at trading house Oanda, says: “We are approaching the end of the year, and it is very unlikely that a late Christmas rally can save the quarter.”

    The most positive were in this week, maybe even the chart technicians of the Swiss Bank UBS: you wrote in an analysis, that the Dax may well now at least once to stabilize. Also a look at the last ten years only due to the hope that there is such a beautiful story, as a Christmas rally: In 5 years, there have been losses, in the next 5 years, there were price gains. Hence the idea of a each year occurring Rally to dissipate, seems to be at least daring. You should put the idea of a Christmas rally so directly? Not quite. So is increased between the years 2003 and 2010, for example, the Dax in December.

    That it’s different this Time, especially for a reason, and the search is in the American Central Bank Fed. Your Chairman Jerome Powell announced on Wednesday night to increase the key ECB interest rates: by 0.25 percentage points To a range between 2.25 and 2.5 per cent. Many market participants believe that the increase in interest rates dampens economic growth. The higher the interest rates are, the more expensive it is to borrow. Here, Powell went, but also specifically to his critics and set for the coming year only two, instead of the previous three interest rate communicated increases. The has not reached the markets this week anyway, and therefore individual analysis of the houses had the headlines already, Powell stole the Christmas rally. But let’s be honest: you Can’t steal something, what is it actually?