The melting snow. The budding branches. Maple Leafs fans looking forward to the playoffs. Fans of the 31 teams quipping about yet another early Maple Leaf elimination.
Spring invariably arrives with its share of traditions. If there’s one Toronto players want to break, it’s their inability to reach the second round of the playoffs.
Yet another reminder: Over the past 17 seasons, the Maple Leafs have either missed the playoffs (10 times) or stumbled in the first round (seven times, six of them straight).
In 2021 and 2022, we thought we had assembled a war machine capable of going a long way. However, in 2021 as in 2022, it was the story of seven games and a handshake.
Manager Kyle Dubas has worked hard to break the cycle. At the cost of multiple draft picks and young players in the organization, he added leadership (Ryan O’Reilly), aggressiveness (Noel Acciari, Sam Lafferty) and defensive reinforcements (Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, Erik Gustafsson). Among the skaters, we are ready to take the next step.
The first was very good. His stats are more like the goalie the Washington Capitals drafted in the first round in 2015 than the one those same Capitals let go a few months ago.
Murray, he was drinkable when he was healthy … that is to say not often. Two injuries have cost him some 25 games, and now he has a head injury. Head coach Sheldon Keefe wouldn’t utter the word “concussion,” but the signs aren’t encouraging.
Assuming that Murray will be ready in time, the question will soon be unavoidable: who, him or Samsonov, will start the first round of the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning?
Samsonov had the duo’s best season, but his playoff resume comes down to seven starts, ending in six losses. Murray is full of experience. His two Stanley Cup rings, while wearing the Pittsburgh Penguins uniform, speak for themselves, although his last years there were far less successful.
Both have borne the brunt of the successive failures of their club. This has sometimes been true…but not all the time.
This is confirmed by the statistics of “saved” goals. This is an indicator derived from the difference between the number of “expected” five-on-five goals, calculated based on the dangerousness of the scoring chances, and the number of actual goals a goalkeeper has conceded. The higher the value, the more difference a goalkeeper can be considered to make in a game or season. Around zero, we will speak of an adequate return, nothing more. Deep in the negatives, it’s going badly.
The numbers tell us that Andersen has been capable of both good and bad. In 2019, he should have won. The previous year, he could clearly be blamed – the collapse of the whole team in Game 7 in Boston is still a painful memory in the Queen City.
Jack Campbell was excellent against the Montreal Canadiens in 2021. Last year, he was correct against the Tampa Bay Lightning. He was mainly criticized for his performances in overtime: in three appearances totaling just over 35 minutes, he received 8 shots and allowed three goals.
What to expect this time in net for the Leafs? It looks like a loot box.
Given his recent season (25-10-5 record, 2.40 goals-against average and .916 save percentage), Ilya Samsonov should logically get the first start.
A misstep on his part could give Matt Murray the chance to assert himself. In which case we will pray that it finds its flame of the beautiful days.
If the two fall apart, one wonders if Joseph Woll, who has been dominant in the American League this season and has looked good in Toronto in a limited sample, will not be brought in.
We come back to it every year, but the patience of the team owners will not last forever with the staff in place, both in management and on the ice.
The big guns finally thundered last spring and they are salivating at the thought of doing it again. Now it’s the masked men’s turn to show they can steal a streak.
This is obviously easier said than done. But it will have to happen one day.
