Far be it from us to claim to be able to write in the Business notebook, but the investment seems risky to us. The Canadian has an 8.5% chance of winning the first draw, which would give him the first choice. So it’s basically a 1 in 12 chance. For comparison, if you bought a ticket for a Canadiens game in 2022-2023, you had the same odds of seeing a goal from Evgenii Dadonov, who scored 4 goals in 50 games with the Habs. Montreal got 1st pick last year, but then had the best chance of winning.
Patience, deuce, the draw takes place this Monday! But if you’re itching that bad, go for an Anaheim Ducks jersey, which has a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery. In fact, the Ducks have an 18.5% chance of winning, but now there’s a rule that prevents teams from moving up more than 10 spots. So, if one of the teams in ranks 12 to 16 in the reverse ranking (Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Calgary) wins the lottery, it will move up 10 positions, which will have no impact on the Ducks’ position. The difference between 18.5% and 25.5% of the probabilities is therefore the sum of the probabilities of these teams from ranks 12 to 16.
Saperlipopette, we can’t do without one. There are indeed two draws, so if the Canadian doesn’t win on the first try, he could still win the second overall pick, a nice consolation prize. According to the very useful Tankathon site, the chances of the Habs in this second draw are 8.6%, so essentially the same as in the first. Adam Fantilli, a forward who has just amassed 65 points in 36 games at the University of Michigan, is tipped as the second prospect, but forward Matvei Michkov is also making scouts salivate. His case is complex, however, because he plays in Russia and has a valid contract until 2026 in the KHL.
It will be played between positions 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7. According to Tankathon calculations, the Canadian has a 44% chance of speaking in 6th place, where not bad players have been drafted in recent years, from Matthew Tkachuk to Moritz Seider via Mika Zibanejad and Sean Monahan. Montreal has a 24.5% chance of ending up in 5th place, which would be its position in the repechage if we only took the reverse ranking without doing a lottery, as in the 1980s. If ever two teams ranked behind the Canadiens win the draws, which has a 14.2% chance of happening, CH will pick 7th. The chances of speaking in 4th rank are nil, and in 3rd rank they are negligible (0.3%).
Nay. Instead, imagine the customer in front of you at Perrette who is slowing everyone down because he is having his Banco ticket validated. It’s roughly the equivalent. The abacus contains balls numbered from 1 to 14. Four of them are drawn. Teams hold combinations in a number proportional to their chances of winning. The Canadian will therefore hold 85 of the 1000 possible combinations (there are actually 1001, but one of them will be declared void in advance). If his comes out, he will win. Last year, the winning combination was 1-3-4-13. The draw itself will not be televised live, but a representative from each team will be dispatched to the site. It will take place in the anonymous studios of the NHL Network, in an industrial park located in the middle of the New Jersey swamps. Where dreams are born.