Future scenarios for pandemic Second pandemic wave could be calculated up to 5000 deaths, researchers from the ETH Zurich with a new mathematical model of the possible history of a possible second Coronavirus pandemic wave in Switzerland. 6 Kommentare6Vorsichtsmassnahmen such as the Wearing of protective masks will prevent in the future a rapid increase in infections.Photo: Andrea payer
If it should come in Switzerland to a second shaft, will roll significantly slower than the first, informed the ETH Zurich on Wednesday. The number of Sufferers will rise at a slower pace, because the company have made a learning process and today are more careful to behave as the beginning of the pandemic.
Even if the reproduction number should rise again about 1, no longer will you be with a probability bordering on certainty so high as at the beginning of the first wave of Infection in the beginning of March. A bottleneck in health care is expected against this Background, hardly.
“on one hand This is good news, but also deceptive”, is the study’s author, Dirk Mohr, Professor of Numerical material modeling at the Department of mechanical and process engineering, is quoted. Particularly insidious would be, according to Mohr, a very slowly rising second wave, with a reproductive number only slightly above 1. Because such could lead to a very large number of additional deaths.
Depending on the course of a second wave could be this according to the study, are calling for up to 5000 deaths. Without a capacity bottleneck before the eyes of the population take the threat may not be true or your understanding of restrictive measures is lacking.
young people Virus spread to more than senior citizens
In their model calculations, the researchers took into account detailed information on the demography and age-specific contact patterns. So it was to calculate, for the first pandemic wave, the reproduction number for individual age groups.
have shown that in Switzerland the 10 – to 20-Year – old is very strong and the 35-to 45-Year-old is also above average for the dissemination of the Virus. The seniors contribute, however, strongly under-average.
Would halve the transmission probability in the schools * maintaining a consistent distance regulations and hygiene measures to be taken, the expected number of additional deaths would be reduced in the total population from 5000 to below 1000, say it in the message. to be able to
the future scenarios to calculate calibrated by the scientists according to their model of the cantons of published official Figures of the past. How to Create a weather forecast, the model calculated the future. Model and calculations have been published by the researchers. The publication has not passed through the normal scientific review process.
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