Mary CuestaSEGUIRTeresa Sánchez Vicente Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *
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The pandemic of coronavirus had an effect on global economic activity even more devastating than it was thought during the first half of the current year and the recovery path will be slower and more gradual than initially projected. Spain, in addition, will be particularly touched in this process, and will be, next to Italy, the country developed that more will suffer, both by the depth of the fall as by the slow and complex journey that is to come after.
This is the picture that reflect the new forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made public yesterday its report “World Economic Outlook” and revised its estimates with regard to April, when the pandemic began to close down the economies of Europe. Now, the Fund is much more pessimistic and warns of the global GDP will fall by 1.9% more than predicted in the first instance , up to 4.9% in 2020, and in 2021, the rebound will be of 5.4%, that is to say, four-tenths below to what was planned two months ago.
Spain became the greatest exponent of the economic devastation for the Covid-19, with a collapse of GDP of 12.8% at the end of the year, 4.8% more than estimated initially, and that places it as a developed economy that more will suffer, and only to the level of Italy. The rest of the developed countries also will suffer major setbacks of GDP, as is the case of the France (-12,5%), United Kingdom (To-10.2%) united States (-8%), Germany (-7,8%) or Japan (-5,8%) .
The recovery will be more costly than anticipated, being out of date as the idea of a crisis into a “V”. “It has suffered a further blow deep into the first half of the year, with signs of distancing volunteer even before impusiesen the detention orders. This also suggests a recovery more gradual in the second half, given that the fear of contagion is likely to continue”, indicates the Background. Thus, in 2021 Spain will grow 6.3 per cent of GDP, a percentage identical to that projected for Italy. Germany will be 5.4% and France, up by 7.3%.
The impact will come also to the public accounts, leaving a footprint that will take many years to disappear. The deficit of Spain will trigger up to 13.9%, while debt will escalate until the 123,8% of GDP in 2020. The fiscal imbalance Spanish will be above the 11.7% of average expected for the whole euro area, 13.6% in France, 12.7% in Italy and 10.7% in Germany. The body that oversees Kristalina Georgieva launches the alarm by the descuadre of the accounts and warning that the fiscal measures put in place by the governments , which, according to their estimates add up to more than ten trillion dollars, have helped the economic revival is planned for next year but have exploded the debt and the deficit, which will lead to consequences in the future.
The Monetary Fund has not been updated on this occasion its forecasts on evolution of the unemployment, without a doubt, the biggest challenge for Spain for face-to-recovery . In April, with forecasts less bitter, the IMF advanced the unemployment scale from 14% at the end of 2019 to 20.8% at the end of this year. However, in spite of not put a new figure on the table, it throws a warning of what is to come. The IMF notes that despite the fact that the landfills have been completed in many countries, the mobility remains depressed, “which suggests that people are reducing it voluntarily his exposure”, and this will impact also on the dynamism of the world economy. This strong decrease of the activity, in turn, will be “catastrophic” in the employment world. An impact that not even the implementation of schemes such as the FATE may mitigate. “Some countries, especially in Europe, have been content with the consequences with schemes in the short term. However, it is estimated that in the first quarter loss was equivalent to 130 million full-time jobs and the decline in the second quarter is equivalent to more than 300 million full-time jobs,” he says.
as happened in April, the IMF explains that “there is a degree of uncertainty higher than usual around this forecast” due to the lack of certainty that still weighs on the evolution of the pandemic. But the institution makes it clear also that the crisis is worse than initially planned, with falls in GDP in the first quarter higher than expected except in rare exceptions, such as Chile, China, India, Malaysia and Thailand, in the block of emerging economies, and Australia, Germany and Japan, among the advanced economies. The indicators point in addition to that the worst is yet to come and the Background moves that the second quarter will be recorded a “contraction greater”.
Support for families and businesses
In terms of the support measures on the part of States both to families and to companies, the IMF asks to continue forward. In particular, it asks that in the case of new restraints were necessary, “the economic policy must continue cushioning the income losses of the households, as well as providing support to the companies that suffer the consequences of restrictions in the activity”. In the face of desescalada, the IMF requests that the support will go gradually withdrawing. “In cases in which the economies reopen, specific support should be shrinking gradually as recovery begins, and the policies should provide a stimulus to enhance the demand.”