Rosalia SánchezSEGUIRCorresponsal in Berlin Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *
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The first assessment of data on the effects that the coronavirus is causing in the european economy, published today in the monthly bulletin of the ECB, points to them as black points to the countries in whose GDP weighs special tourism . The issuer european warns that “the pandemic of COVID-19 has a severe impact and long-lasting in the general economy of the countries dependent on travel and tourism”, such as that of Spain. In an article in which Tobias Schuler analyzes and quantifies the impact of the pandemic, noting that containment measures have “significant impacts” on businesses and on the employment of the travel industry. “apply to all services of the euro area,” he admitted, “but especially to travel and to the transport of passengers”.
The exports of services in whole fell by 10.6% and imports of services fell 3.3% in march, compared with the same month last year. The industries that involve physical contact have been those that have been most affected and have recorded a sharper fall in activity in April, and here are the services related to tourism and leisure. Even, after they have been relaxed quite a few of the measures to combat the spread of the virus , risk aversion and the preference change continue to have effects in the travel sector, suggesting that there are effects that have come to stay.
The net trade of travel contributed with 42,000 million euros to the surplus of 68,000 million euros for the services of the trade balance of the eurozone in 2019. is services exports outside of the euro area reached last year 988.000 million euros , of which 124.000 million euros came from the travel services, 17% of the total. Under this level of contribution, can be calculated the effects that the drop in tourism will have on the economy as a whole. The transport sector represents 16% , and includes both the transport of goods, as the passenger. Imports of services recorded 920.000 million euros, with transportation (16%) and travel (13%) the largest categories, according to figures from the ECB.
Chapter apart deserves the air transport industry, which is facing “a strong headwind” , regrets the report, due to the travel restrictions. The ECB quantifies the ability of flight global has been reduced by 65% since the outbreak of COVID-19, especially in Spain, France and Germany, where it has decreased, even more than a 90% , USA (-72%), Japan (-48 %) and China (-71%). This collapse is unprecedented in the history of aviation and the end effects that has on the economy are very difficult to determine a priori. The revenue per passenger air down 15% after the terrorist attacks of September 2001, by way of reference, and it took between two and three years to recover completely in the USA and Europe.
After the SARS outbreak in 2002-03 , the passenger revenue fell by two-thirds and not recovered until a year later. “The fall of the activity of the international air as a result of the COVID-19 is, however, much broader and deeper than the previous examples, and is likely to have more severe consequences for the industry,” warns the ECB. The countries with the most income get it for services accommodation traveler are Spain, France, Italy and Germany. Austria, the Netherlands, Greece and Portugal are in the second range of countries most affected by the drop in tourism.
Banks too exposed to the weather
to Coincide with the publication of this bulletin, the supervisor of the ECB, Andrea Enria, has delivered a speech in which he warned that the euro zone banks are highly exposed to industries with higher emissions of carbon dioxide and face significant risks related to climate change. With the desire of entities to assume greater responsibility in their lending, the ECB has been asked to begin to publicly disclose data about their climate risks and environmental and they’ve been told to include these factors in your long-term business strategy.
“An abrupt transition to an economy with low carbon emissions would be a severe impact on economic sectors climate-sensitive , causing an increase of the losses in the banking system of up to 60% compared to a central scenario,” he predicted. “The 15% of the exhibitions of the important entities are companies that are most carbon-intensive”, a figure Enria, a risk that tends to materialize in the long term, while banks tend to consider the risks to a year view and the regulatory requirements reinforce this strategy a little far-sighted.
