The confinement sunk the GDP of 34% in the second half of march, double the level in Germany

Javier TahiriSEGUIRMADRID Updated: Save Send news by mail electrónicoTu name *

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The delay to act in the crisis of the coronavirus has meant that Spain has gone through one of the restraints toughest in the world, being during the month of may, the most strict among the great countries of Europe, according to data from the University of Oxford. The impact on activity has been colossal. Taking only the last fifteen days of march, the Bank of Spain calculates that the activity in our country was plunged 34%, same percentage as Italy, while France ceded a 32%. Percentages that contrast with the 13% of Germany, who acted before and was able to proceed to a confinement more lightweight than the other european countries, in order to avoid damage to your economy with so much force. On average, production in the Eurozone contracted by the restrictions, a 21%.

“among the four largest economies, France, Italy and Spain registered an impact top, given the increased severity of the containment measures applied”, lies the Bank of Spain in its report published yesterday “The economic impact of the initial health crisis and containment measures in the countries of the euro area”. Add to this the greater weight in Spain of the sectors most affected, such as tourism, the hotel industry or catering, which have an important influence on this impact higher.

In the case of Spain must take into account that, according to the metrics of mobility from Google and the restrictions in place, the confinement has been longer and hard than in Italy and France during the month of may. This will result in the second quarter the impact on the activity has been greater.

For the moment, with the data from the second half of march, the trade, transport and hotels and catering were reduced more strongly than in any other country, 71%, compared to 22% in Germany, 44% on average in the Eurozone or 61% of Italy. To make matters worse, Spain is the country most dependent on these branches, which contribute to the GDP of 23.8% compared with 21.6% in Italy, 16.2% in Germany, 17.7% in France and 19% in the Eurozone. Therefore, the multiplier effect of the blow will be much higher in our country.

Because in the services, our country worked those two weeks at half speed, at 50%, being the largest crop production in the sector tractor of our economy in front of Italy and France (both with a -33%), Eurozone (-26%) and Germany (-12%). “The behavior of the construction during the period of confinement has been particularly heterogeneous. The fall of the activity of this sector with respect to the level prior to the crisis would have reached the 85% in France and over 50% in Spain. In Germany, in contrast, the activity increased during the first quarter, in a context of climate, favourable”, according to the Bank of Spain.

A 73% drop in art activities

Spain also led the fall in the artistic activities and leisure, with a -73%, which contrasts with the -44% of Italy (in the middle of the Eurozone), the -63% of France or -20% Germany . The only sector that seems to react better than in the rest of countries were manufactures, where Spain reduced the production by 21%, a percentage below that of the eu average (22%), and Germany (-29%), Italy (-59%), and France (-39%).

This blow to the activity caused only in march that the GDP in the first quarter fell 5.2 per cent, compared with 2.2% in Germany, 5.3% in Italy, 5.8% in France, while on average the Eurozone shrank 3.8%.