Calendar summer is coming! This year, it will begin on June 21, 2022 at 11:13 a.m. with the summer solstice and end on Friday, September 23, 2022 at 03:03 a.m. with the autumn equinox. However, the summer climate already seems to be well established over a large part of France. The month of May 2022 was, as such, the hottest on record, according to Météo France. Will the trend continue all summer?
According to the forecasts of the Weather Channel, it is indeed a hot and stormy summer that awaits us in France. “The global meteorological configuration of the summer should present centers of action always reversed on a European scale, with a recurrence of high pressures (anticyclones) positioned in Northern Europe and low pressures (depressions) on the Mediterranean”, specifies the site. Concretely, the weather should therefore be dry in the North, and quite unstable in the South, which is not usual for the period.
The return of the La Nina meteorological phenomenon, (cooling of the waters of the Pacific), would be conducive to a stormy climate this summer in France, with temperatures that could be 1.5°C above the averages of season.
On average, in France, the normal temperature for the season is 19.9°C, according to Météo France.
The five hottest summers since 1900 are pretty close to us: 2003, 2018, 2019, 2017, 2015. Could 2022 make the list?
The meteorological summer, to be distinguished from its calendar date, will begin on June 1. It is from this date that the temperatures are likely to be the hottest of the year. Above all, according to the Weather Channel, “June could be the hottest month of the summer”. Temperatures could rise above 2°C compared to seasonal norms. And it is in the North that the phenomenon will be most marked!
Should we fear strong heat, or even a heat wave?
The Weather Channel reassures: the month of June should also be marked by a series of storms, which could avoid a drought that many farmers already fear. These stormy disturbances should be located “on an axis extending most often from the southwest to the northeast, going up from Spain”, reports the specialized site.
Precipitation will however remain short, especially in the south-eastern quarter and north of the Loire, areas which should be spared by the storms in June.
A hot but disturbed weather for this first summer month. What about July?
In July, the weather pattern will be similar to June, predicts the Weather Channel. The centers of action will remain inverted, which could be conducive to dry weather in the North, and stormy disturbances around the Mediterranean.
On the mercury side, we expect temperatures at least 1.5°C above seasonal norms.
And as in June, a certain number of thunderstorms must be expected on the “usual usual axis going up from the southwest to the northeast”, specifies the Weather Channel. But not only: thunder could rumble in other regions, and the showers that accompany it should allow France to regain a rate of precipitation close to seasonal norms… Except in the northwest and southeast, which should be less affected by storms.
According to Météo France, an average of 190 mm of precipitation falls each summer in mainland France.
Will the storms persist in August? Will the heat intensify?
It is traditionally the hottest month of the year. In 2022, the latest forecasts are no exception to the rule: August should be quite warm, but much wetter than the two previous months, due to a “change of regime”, explains the Weather Channel.
We must expect a more disturbed weather, and many precipitations. They “could be surplus by around 5 to 10% on the scale of the hexagon in a fairly homogeneous way”, specifies the site.
Temperatures should be 0.5 to 1°C above normal for the season.
It is therefore a heavy climate and a humid atmosphere that seems to be waiting for France this summer.
Over the three months, the Weather Channel forecasts show temperatures 1.5°C above the average for the season. A gap conducive to heat waves, advances the site, even if many storms are to be expected. “like in 2018 for example, where the summer was very hot, but also very stormy”, continues the site.
Stormy disturbances could, however, limit the aggravation of the drought in the territory, and reduce the high heat. But the overall feeling could be unpleasant…