Will 2022 be one of the hottest summers ever recorded on French territory? After two particularly hot first months and already several heat waves, August promises to be torrid in turn.
“Our latest forecast confirms a hot weather summer, with temperatures 1.2 to 2 degrees above normal for the season. The three months of summer will be hot, explains Pascal Scaviner, head of the forecast service at La Chaîne Météo. The likelihood of a warm August, i.e. above average, is high.”
In summer, the normal seasonal temperature established by Météo France is 19.9°C. Since the last century, the summer of 2003 has been the hottest, with an average temperature of 23.1°C, i.e. 3.2°C above normal. Then came the summers of 2019 and 2018.
“2003 was characterized by the hottest June and the hottest August on record, but a different July. However, this year, what we see is a plateau of heat, a certain constancy: we are in the heat (between 25°C and 30°C) and the very hot (30°C and 35°C ), not below”, continues Pascal Scaviner.
According to forecasters, a new wave of heat wave could even hit France from the first days of August.
“The first ten days of August will be characterized by the presence of hot and sunny weather in France. A new episode of heat wave should occur in most of our regions due to a cold drop located off the coast of Portugal”, articulates Patrick Marlière, director of Agate Météo.
“Maximum temperatures could once again exceed the 40°C threshold, especially in the South-West”, continues the specialist.
The same goes for the Weather Channel: according to Pascal Daviner, “there could be a period of heat wave or a heat wave in the first ten days, quite persistent in the southern half of the country”.
However, in history, heat waves are often rarer in August, when the days begin to get shorter.
“But this year, the month of August will be hot, with a different circulation in the atmosphere, explains Pascal Daviner. The heat will be strong, even very strong, and very frequent, even almost daily. Seasonal temperatures, that is to say where you can enjoy beautiful days without excess, would be for example 25°C in Paris, 28°C in Bordeaux. Next month, we are more likely to be between 25°C and 35°C. The southern third of the country could experience a very hot summer, with temperatures very often above 35°C.”
From August 11, “maximum temperatures will drop, but still conform to seasonal norms”, explains Patrick Marlière, from Agate Météo. Severe thunderstorms could also hit many areas.
But the respite will be short-lived.
From August 21 to 30, “we will monitor new heat strokes that could set in throughout France. Drought-related problems could increase again, especially in the Southeast,” said the forecaster.
Could the month of August break the heat records, already exceeded in July 2022? “To tell you that we will beat them, the percentage is low, on the other hand, when we reach scorching temperatures, it is very high”, analyzes Pascal Scaviner.
For him, the summer of 2022 could end up in the top 5 hottest summers since 1900, “Because of the regularity of the heat. We do not think at this stage that we are going to go towards cool weeks for the season”, adds the specialist.
“We will have to remain very vigilant to the risk of fires and forest fires due to the drought which is expected to increase in the course of the coming weeks. The regions already exposed to megafires will have to remain under close surveillance, warns Patrick Marlière, before concluding: “the scorching heat should affect a good number of regions during this month of August, it will be necessary to be very careful, especially for the most vulnerable people. more fragile or pets”.