We are only in May and heat records have already been set with exceptional temperatures across the country for the season. In question ? Global warming, which changes our daily lives and upsets our environment. For Planet, the meteorologist Régis Crépet of La Chaîne Météo, offers some clarification on the situation that awaits us this summer.
In intensity as in duration, France is currently experiencing temperature records. According to Météo France, the month of May 2022 is therefore the hottest month ever recorded in France. With an average temperature 3 degrees above seasonal norms, the May 2011 record was largely beaten.
All the departments are concerned by these data, including those most spared, in normal times, by heat waves, such as Brittany. Météo France is therefore alarmed by this “episode of exceptional heat due to its precocity, its duration and its geographical extent.” Farmers are worried about their harvest and the prospect of a hot summer.
While individuals and professionals fear a new heat wave in the summer of 2022, meteorologist Régis Crépet provides us with details on this prospect and reveals the trends for the coming months.
As the meteorologist Régis Crépet mentions, it is worth remembering what a heat wave is. A heat wave is defined by very high levels of high heat, present day and night and consecutive for at least three days. The heat wave symbolizes “the final stage of heat waves” and it responds to “objective thresholds adapted according to the regions.”
To date, “no heat wave is expected and no communication has been made on this subject.” Régis Crépet, however, announces a “hot summer for France”, which is not “synonymous with a heat wave”. He adds that “the hotter the summer promises to be, the higher the risk of having heat waves and high temperatures” and specifies that “the more storms there are, the more it slows down the risk of a heat wave.”
Meteorologist Régis Crépet predicts “a hot month of June, which will be marked by thunderstorm breaks.” For him, “thunderstorms and rain are good news since they water the ground and lower temperatures.” He goes back to the good frequency of storms: “If the storms manage to break out every eight days, that would prevent excessive heat from settling in for a long time.”
The occurrence of these storms prevents the formation of a heat dome, “a mass of very hot air blocked on a continent or a country”, which installs a lasting heat, then a heat wave. This phenomenon occurred in particular during the heat wave of 2003 or, last summer, in Canada.
In June, “hot spells interrupted by thunderstorms” will therefore be expected. Régis Crépet warns against the possible violence of certain storms, which could be both beneficial and destructive for the agricultural world. As he points out, “nothing is perfect in the weather.”
For the month of July, meteorologist Régis Crépet explains that “if, over the weeks of the summer, the storms lessen, this could lead to one or more episodes of heat wave.” He goes on to talk about “numerical models, which do not necessarily go towards this scenario.” For him, “even if the summer seems durable, the models see, even in July and August, a stormy continuation.”
Concerning the month of August, “the reliability is less good but, according to the numerical models, there would be more risks of experiencing a heat wave.” He goes on to talk about “a few indicators that point to more drought in the Southeast regions.” The time is therefore neither for a “rotten summer”, nor for a “heat wave summer”, but rather at the risk of a heat wave, which will be subject to the evolution of storms over the weeks.
