According to surveys by infratest dimap, the CDU/CSU gained a total of 1,040,000 votes compared to the federal election in September 2021 (at that time it had 11,177,747 voters). The largest increase came from the SPD with 1,440,000 voters, followed by 1,130,000 votes from the FDP, 560,000 from the Greens and 40,000 from the Left. The Union lost the most to non-voters (1,280,000), as well as 600,000 to the AfD and 250,000 to the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

The AfD’s total increase amounts to 1,380,000 votes. Most voters since 2021 (4,809,233) have come from the Union (600,000), the SPD (590,000) and the FDP (450,000). The AfD also gained votes from former voters of the Left (150,000) and the Greens (50,000). It had to give up votes to non-voters (320,000) and the BSW (140,000).

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The SPD has lost a total of 5,240,000 votes since 2021 (11,901,558) – because it had to give up votes to all other parties and did not gain from any. 3.6 million voters alone went to non-voters (2,460,000), AfD (590,000) and BSW (550,000). The Social Democrats lost 1,440,000 to the Union and 100,000 each to the FDP and the Greens. There was no exchange of voters with the Left.

The Greens lost 1,220,000 votes in this election compared to the last federal election (6,814,408) – because they only gained votes from one party and lost votes to others: 100,000 voters moved from the SPD, 560,000 went to the Union, 520,000 to the non-voters, 140,000 to the BSW, 50,000 to the AfD, 30,000 to the Left and 20,000 to the FDP.

The FDP has lost a total of 2,750,000 votes since 2021 (5,291,013) – the majority went to the Union with 1,130,000 and to non-voters with 1,070,000. 450,000 previous voters voted for the AfD this time, 220,000 for the BSW. The Free Democrats were able to collect 10,000 votes from the SPD and 20,000 from the Greens. They also had no voter exchange with the Left.

The Left lost exactly one million votes compared to 2021 (2,255,864). Most previous voters now voted for the BSW (450,000), became non-voters (390,000), switched to the AfD (150,000) and the Union (40,000). The Left was only able to gain votes from the Greens (30,000); there was no voter exchange with the SPD and FDP.

Since the BSW took part in an election for the first time ever, five months after its founding in January, it could only win in the truest sense of the word and mathematically. The biggest increase came from the SPD with 550,000 votes, followed by the Left (450,000), the Union (250,000), the FDP (220,000) and the AfD, the Greens and the non-voters with 140,000 each.