Retirement: after the revaluation, what should we expect from the reform?

No, the pension reform has not been forgotten. If the subject has been relatively discreet in recent weeks, some now suspect the desire of the President of the Republic to “pass in force”. Some, among the unions who are categorically opposed to the transformation carried out by the executive, do not hesitate to speak of a “brutal measure”. This is the case, in particular of the CFDT. In question ? The mode of action envisaged by the Head of State, on the one hand, and on the other hand his stated objective of pushing back the legal retirement age. He wants to raise it gradually from 62 to 65 years old. Such a proposal could struggle to convince the French and the French…

If, since the start of the five-year term, the transformation of our model of intergenerational solidarity has proved to be so little mentioned, it is also because there is no shortage of projects. The president and his team notably had to work on the revaluation of retirement pensions, which occurred, as explained by Planet, on Friday September 9, 2022. This being retroactive, retirees received an increase twice as large as the one to which they will be entitled next month. But what does the head of state now have in store for them?

First, the government tended to stall. Now it is accelerating. The resumption of negotiations, which should bring together the trade unions as well as the representatives of employers, is expected for Thursday, September 15, 2022. And some, like François Bayrou, insist on the issues, evoking, as reported by Liberation, the risk for the State to no longer be able to pay, within a few years, the pensions of retirees. The annual report of the Pensions Orientation Council (COR), which must be presented at the same time as the negotiation phase begins, mentions for its part 3 billion euros in surpluses this year and deteriorations to come.

While it remains difficult to put forward a precise timetable, it is clear that the government now wants to move very quickly. This is not surprising: as the economist Philippe Crevel explained in our columns, it is an essential element for the good general application of Emmanuel Macron’s program. “A good part of his program, particularly in terms of public spending, depends on pension reform”, he recalls in particular. Failing to have succeeded in winning an absolute majority, the president could also be tempted to pass, for this purpose, by the PLFSS 2023, or social security financing bill.

With the stated objective of enabling the project to come into force in the summer of 2023.

Because he will probably not be able to force through as he hopes without risking a lot, the head of state could have recourse, conditionally, to an alliance with the right, political scientist Raul Magni-Berton recently underlined for Planet. Like the employers – who partly aspire to a rapid and very American-inspired reform; pro-capitalization – the right could find points of agreement with Renaissance, the president’s movement. In which case, the legitimacy of the reform would be strengthened. “If they do find a majority, it means that the reform will have been reinforced by negotiation. It will be mechanically better accepted”, argues the teacher-researcher.

In fact, the pension reform advocated by Emmanuel Macron seems to be inspired by the work of certain Nobel Prize winners, underlined the economist Alexandre Delaigue, associate professor and researcher at the University of Lilles 1. “The pension reform has several objectives . First of all, and this is its central point, it aims to stabilize the weight of pensions in GDP, in accordance with the recommendations of certain economists such as Jean Tirole. The idea is that the load does not exceed 14%”, declared the specialist last June.

Therefore, he continues, two methods can achieve this. “Either we are counting on an increase in growth, or we are counting on a blow in the level of pensions of tomorrow”. By pushing back the legal age of departure, it is obviously the second method that has been chosen…